Economic data came out this morning, which, in reality, wasn’t bad. But the S&P 500 dropped 3% at its low.
As I mentioned this morning, to me the issue is oil up, bonds down posing the biggest risk to the overall market.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
Economic data came out this morning, which, in reality, wasn’t bad. But the S&P 500 dropped 3% at its low.
As I mentioned this morning, to me the issue is oil up, bonds down posing the biggest risk to the overall market.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
That was a wild move yesterday. Almost everything reversed lower.
I’d like to think this is simply just a healthy consolidation before a potential move higher for the indices.
by JC
The way I learned it was that we want to buy stocks when the journalists put a chart on the cover of a magazine.
I like to pick on The Economist because they have such a great track record of being the last ones to the party.
Here’s a good run down of a few favorites and part of the reason we got so cautious last Spring.
Fast forward to today: Can we classify this one as a chart? Does this count? [Read more…]
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley
If you can pry your eyes from the UK gilt and Credit Suisse articles, you’ll find it’s not all doom and gloom across the bond market – especially high-yield debt in the US.
A quick warning before we continue: You probably won’t see a similar message on the financial news. It’s just too optimistic for the current environment. It wouldn’t get enough clicks.
But facts are facts. And right now, high-yield bonds are hooking higher, while stocks are also rising.
According to the Wall Street Journal, options volume continues to explode – driven primarily by the growing popularity of short-dated options.
Whether looking to speculate, hedge or collect premiums, options players are increasingly flocking to options that have fewer than 7 days to expiration. And with the proliferation of weekly options and three-times weekly expirations in popular index ETFs like $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM, traders frequently have the opportunity to trade options expiring within 24 hours!
It is no surprise that these types of short-dated options are attractive to some players. They offer the best characteristics of options: defined risk, leverage, and affordability for even the smallest of traders.
Of course, there is no free lunch. As nice as all the pros are, the cons are equally supersized when the ass-end of gamma smacks your trade in the face. As quickly as profits can accumulate when you nail the timing of one of these trades, any hint of delay for a long options position or fear of swift reversal in a short options position can rapidly erode whatever gains you may have in your position. [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
So, we had a decent consolidation day.
We just have to make sure this market hangs on.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
We held our October Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
by Louis Sykes
From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts
One of our favorite anecdotal indicators is the classic magazine cover.
Journalists do a tremendous job of aggregating consumer and investor sentiment.
By the time these magazines and other features take time to plan, develop, and eventually publish their covers, they’re always going to be late to the party.
That time delay often presents a prime opportunity for investors.
Similarly, ETF providers also give us a wealth of sentiment information, particularly when it comes to ETF launches and de-listings.
ETF providers have a hilarious track record of launching funds at the complete worst time while de-listing them right before things get going.
A classic example is the coal ETF that got de-listed right before the epic bull market in coal stocks just began.
In crypto, we have yet another insightful indicator, one I like to call the “FTX indicator.”