This is the video recording of our December 1, 2020 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Betting On A Greater Fool: Bitcoin & Gold Edition
Today a conversation came up about whether Gold is an “investment” but Bitcoin is just “Speculation”.
Come on…
Let’s be serious. One is a useless rock and the other is an almost useless currency. Both of these are speculations. Both of these can be considered “investments”. But the only reason to buy either of these is because you think someone else will pay you more for it in the future.
If you don’t think a greater fool will pay you more down the road, there’s no reason to own either of them.
On another note, the behavior we’re seeing in both of these is eerily similar. Keep in mind, since earlier this year we were bullish on both of them, betting that Bitcoin and Gold would trade much higher. Our targets? The former all-time highs: Gold’s 2011 peak and Bitcoin’s 2017 peak.
Mission accomplished. Great trades! Since then, they’re someone else’s problem.
Look at both of these and tell me they’re not behaving exactly the same. Granted, on different time horizons, but as they say, “The markets are fractal”, meaning that you’ll see the same behavior patterns across timeframes.
[Read more…]
[Premium] The Gold Report: Everything Metals, Mining Stocks & Bitcoin
Here’s the latest Gold Report. In this 35-page PDF, you’ll find:
- Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium Charts
- Intermarket Analysis with Precious Metals
- Charts of Gold & Silver Mining Stocks
- Currencies and their impact on Precious Metals
- Comparisons between Precious & Base Metals
- Bitcoin – Where do we go now?
- Comparing the Gold and Bitcoin tops
Don’t Make Bitcoin Your Religion
Here’s the thing about bitcoin that I think a lot of people don’t understand…
You can be long bitcoin and expect higher prices and not have to make up conspiracy theories about the stuff. There’s no need to be a one-trick pony.
Owning bitcoin is no different than buying a stock or ETF: It’s just letters and math. Everybody thinks there’s some secret sauce to the cryptocurrencies, but overthinking it can be incredibly dangerous.
Why? Because if you over-think it – if you grant it more prestige or mystery than it’s worth – then you become part of a cult . . . and you lose the ability to think clearly about your investments. It becomes a religion. And what happens then is that you throw risk management out the window. That’s the scary part!
Bitcoin should be treated no differently than any other assets: Identify the risk and take profits when your targets are achieved.
We’re thrilled Bitcoin has done so well. We’ve been as bullish as anyone else. The difference is that we weren’t the bag holders throughout 2018 & 2019 like the bitcoin cult leaders. That’s because we’re not part of the religion. The truth is, I don’t care whether bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 or if it goes to zero.
I couldn’t care less.
It’s not my problem.
But we’ve been long for the last 80%. One for the good guys! But it’s no different than the $PTON or $SNAP trades we put on. It’s just a trade. Not a lifestyle.
If you find yourself following people who failed at other endeavors and are now clinging on to the hopes and dreams of higher bitcoin prices, shut them off. They’re the most dangerous people of them all because they have nothing to lose. They’ve been wrong about everything else, they’re on tilt, and now they’re going all in on the crypto.
Don’t be that guy.
Try to be the opposite actually.
Premium Members can always find my updated price targets and crypto strategy on our Trade Ideas list.
Let me know what you think!
JC
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording November 2020
This is the video recording of the November 2020 Conference Call.
[Chart Of The Week] “It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again” for Bitcoin
I feel like we’ve seen this before…
Here is the chart of Bitcoin. Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation…
If this were one of those tests you took in grade school where they ask you what’s next in this pattern, you would say Breakout and then Uptrend right?
Yea that’s what I’m gonna go with.
It hasn’t done much since breaking out above 10,000. But if we’re above that, this is a long for sure I think.
You math majors can go back and do the calculations on the % appreciation from those breakouts up to their eventual cycle peaks.
But the way I see it, even just a fraction of that sort of behavior can be a game changer for the portfolio. And that’s enough for me.
Where do I have this wrong. What am I missing?
JC
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2020
This is the video recording of the September 2020 Conference Call.
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session August 2020
This is the video recording of our August 4th 2020 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
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