This is the video recording of the August 5th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
08/05/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
This is the video recording of the August 5th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
08/05/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Three perspectives:
1. I am thankful for the chance to get away for a few days last week. It was a luxury to have all five of our family together for a few nights of camping and hiking amid the ever increasing busyness of life. All too soon, the time together was over and we had to head back to Milwaukee to finish up a few individual summer activities before school re-starts later this month (with a new twist this fall that our oldest will be heading off to college.) It wasn’t the specific activities that mattered as much as having the time to be together. I came away with a fresh resolve to stop doing things that aren’t worth the time so I have more time for the things that are worth doing.
2. My garden is in full riot right now. The time spent planting this Spring is finally bearing fruit. Bees & butterflies flit among the flower blossoms. Finches and robins swoop about looking for what is ripe now, and taking note of what might be available next. Bunnies (uninvited, but still staking their claim) are hiding among the beets and pilfering edamame. No matter how much time I take looking over the vines for ripe cucumbers, there always seems to be one that escapes notice until it’s twice as large as it’s supposed to be. At the center of our garden is the herb bed — parsley, sage, rosemary, and much more. In the dead of winter, you’ll pay a pretty penny for what grows like weeds in August. We have herbs aplenty right now and we try to use them every night. For us, there is no running out of thyme.
3. Time gets plenty of attention as the one reliable way for individual investors to manage risk and tilt the odds in their favor. Stretching horizons from months to years and from years to decades is one of the most popular ways of increasing the likelihood of a great investing outcome. It’s all about taking advantage of time by holding tight through periods of volatility and relying on the market’s tendency over long time periods to move up and to the right. It can be a tool for investors, but it should not be the only tool. In fact, I’m not sure it’s even the best tool. It’s not just that relying on time can be counterintuitive. It also requires action (or inaction, more often) that is at odds with actual risk tolerances. The results work in theory, but real-world implementation is improbable. This is true for many things in life and investing. As someone once said, “In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice they are not.”
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key takeaway: A “no fear” attitude envelopes a market marred by mixed signals and deteriorating breadth. Large-cap indexes push to new highs while small and mid-caps trend lower. We even see an expansion in new lows further down the cap scale. But on the surface, optimism shines. Yet, challenges could lie ahead as a lack of risk-seeking behavior suggests a weariness among investors, and seasonal tendencies lean toward a lackluster performance in the coming months. For now, equities remain the popular choice among market participants as investor sentiment obscures the fragile reality beneath the surface.
If you want to know what is loved, see where people put their money. Through the first seven months of the year, equity ETFs have seen more than $350 billion of inflows (over the past year, that number swells to half a trillion). Bond ETFs have seen inflows of one-third that amount, while commodity ETFs have seen outflows.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
by Peter
by Peter
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key takeaway: Optimism most likely peaked earlier this year, as options activity and equity exposure have continued to trend lower in recent months. Yet, our sentiment indicators show no signs of fear. Of course, it’s hard to imagine an environment plagued by fear when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq push to new highs. However, when we look beneath the surface new highs contract while new lows expand. It seems each day a new bearish divergence in breadth emerges, adding to the fragility and deterioration of an already shaky foundation. Without a supportive backdrop, a price correction or volatility event could lead to a meaningful unwind in sentiment.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ made new highs last week but looking beneath the surface tells a different story. There were as many stocks making new lows as new highs last week. Between the NYSE and NASDAQ, the new low list rose to its highest level since early May and the new high list dropped to its lowest level since October.
by Peter