This is what happens when you ignore price just because you’re too weak to overcome your ego:
Saturday Morning Chartoons: The End Of Seasonal Weakness
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Introducing… The Hall Of Famers
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft–with market caps in excess of $2T–to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It’s got all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we’re developing a separate universe for that, and we’ll be sharing it with you soon.
So, The Hall of Famers is easy.
We simply take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Breadth Trends Signal a Healthy Digestion
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Whether we’re talking about stocks, commodities, currencies, or even the bond market, things have been a total mess. It’s no secret, and you’re probably tired of hearing it by now.
Trust me, we’re just as tired of seeing it.
So, as these choppy conditions test our patience and discipline, why not use this opportunity to take a step back and examine where we’ve come from, where we are now, and where we’re likely headed.
In today’s post, we’re going to do just that by revisiting and analyzing some of our favorite breadth indicators and discussing what some of them are suggesting for commodities over the long run.
Let’s dig into it! [Read more…]
Who’s Ready for Rising Rates?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
I was talking to the team earlier this week and mentioned that I was having a hard time writing. Grant and Ian were quick to remind me that it’s probably because “nothing new is happening!”
They were right. Until now…
We finally got a major resolution in what we consider one of the most important charts in the world these days.
I’m talking about the US 10-year yield reclaiming that critical 1.40% level this week. And this begs the question as to what a rising rate environment might mean for investor portfolios.
Well, one thing we know for sure is we want to stay away from bonds… unless we’re shorting them.
But how do we want to position ourselves in the stock market if yields are breaking out? [Read more…]
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
The story this week was bond yields and the mounting evidence that they are ready to move higher. 10-year yields in the US and Germany have climbed to their highest levels since July. The US 10-year T-Note yield has broken above 1.40% and could soon have 1.75% again in its sights. A 2-handle by the end of the year would not be surprising. Except for the May/June time period, German yields are the least negative they have been since crossing the zero threshold in mid-2019. These moves may reflect inflation expectations, but with the rise in the 2-year T-Note yield this week (highest level since March 2020) it is also the bond market taking seriously the possibility that the Fed will soon be joining the 30% of global central banks that have already begun to raise interest rates. For investors, this could be an opportunity to rotate back into cyclical sectors that do well in rising rate environments.
The Return of High Beta?
More Of The Same
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Considering the selling pressure in recent weeks, we were very excited to take a look at our breadth indicators today to see if we finally saw some downside expansion worth pointing out. Spoiler alert: There was nothing there.
Being as we’re in a sideways market, we’re always on the lookout for a change in character in internals that might suggest some resolutions are finally on the horizon. And since bears have been driving stocks lower since early this month, our focus is on new short-term lows.
With the S&P experiencing some volatility and revisiting its 50-day moving average this week, did we finally get that “fall day?”
Two things we’ve been hitting on ad nauseam for over a quarter now are the consistent lack of new lows and the fact that most stocks have already corrected beneath the surface.
Today, we’re going to revisit both of these key themes and see where we currently stand.
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