This is the video recording of our October 4, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Dollars & Rates: All Eyez On Me
To quote the great philosopher Tupac Shakur, “All Eyez On Me”.
Makaveli – The Don would agree, if he were here, that the focus needs to be on the US Dollar and Interest Rates.
The implications will most likely impact every single asset class you’ve ever heard of.
Here’s the recent US Dollar strength as it runs into former resistance and key Fibonacci retracement: [Read more…]
This Indicator SCREAMS Risk-On!
Who’s Ready for Rising Rates?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
I was talking to the team earlier this week and mentioned that I was having a hard time writing. Grant and Ian were quick to remind me that it’s probably because “nothing new is happening!”
They were right. Until now…
We finally got a major resolution in what we consider one of the most important charts in the world these days.
I’m talking about the US 10-year yield reclaiming that critical 1.40% level this week. And this begs the question as to what a rising rate environment might mean for investor portfolios.
Well, one thing we know for sure is we want to stay away from bonds… unless we’re shorting them.
But how do we want to position ourselves in the stock market if yields are breaking out? [Read more…]
The Return of High Beta?
Seasonal Weakness Is Almost Over
Risky Business
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
In today’s post, we’re going to do an update on some of our favorite and most essential intermarket indicators. We’ve also updated our risk checklist so we can discuss the changes that have occurred over the past week or so.
Are market participants embracing more or less risk these days?
We’ll get there.
We’ve been obnoxious about our theme that this remains a messy environment for stocks, which is nothing but classic “year two” bull market behavior.
But guess what: That’s just what it is right now. You have to play the cards you’re dealt, and right now they’re not the best. This is particularly true for trend-followers like ourselves.
Let’s talk about why.
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (09-16-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our RPP Report from the end of August, we discussed how the weakest areas were registering failed breakdowns and digging in at support.
In our most recent report, we focused on how the strongest areas were making fresh record highs. Things were looking up for the bulls… but that changed once again.
We’ve talked about how it’s been a back and forth battle with neither buyers nor sellers making any material progress for months now. And that’s exactly what we’re continuing to see, as bears have regained control again, pushing the major indexes lower for five straight sessions coming into this week.
For this reason, we thought a mid-week edition of the RPP would be appropriate to give us time to see what kind of follow-through would occur following the recent selloff.
In this week’s report, we’re going to talk about this near-term weakness but also some positive developments, like the healthy expansion in participation for ex-US equities in recent weeks and months.
I’m working with a broken hand these days, so we’re also going to try and let the charts do most of the talking. Don’t worry, there are plenty out there that have something to say. Let’s look at some now.
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