Who loves a weaker Dollar the most?
Have you run the numbers?
This is the video recording of our December 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
I continue to wonder what people are so angry about.
More and more stocks keep going up.
Fewer and fewer are going down.
More sectors are participating.
More countries are acting strong.
What’s the problem? [Read more…]
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Monday night we held our November Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each
Let’s get right into it!
This is the video recording of the November 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
Note: Our Live Mid-month Conference call is this coming Monday Nov 21st @ 6PM ET. Premium Members can register here.
For quite some time we’ve treated Bitcoin and many Altcoins as just more stocks to choose from.
More specifically, we can argue they might be software stocks, or Tech stock of some kind.
At the very least, we’ve agreed that they’re in the growth category and part of that long-duration trade.
And the correlations have been there to justify it.
So the divergence we’ve seen lately really stands out.
Regardless of market capitalization, you can see the growth stocks holding on to their June lows, but Bitcoin and many Altcoins have not.
They’ve gone on to make lower lows:
This week we came right out of the gates with the Chart of the Decade.
The catalyst for stocks to have a sustained rally is a weaker US Dollar.
The market keeps proving that to be right.
And yes, I am aware that in the 1990s, a weaker Dollar was not the bullish catalyst for stocks.
But are you aware that this is not the 1990s?
It’s 2022 and the correlation has been consistently negative between stocks and Dollars.
Until that changes, we’re not going to fight it.
And while this week’s chart was comparing the US Dollar to Emerging Market Currencies, in this post I want to focus on the more developed countries.
The Euro, British Pound and Yen represent 83% of the entire US Dollar Index.
The Euro and British Pounds both bottomed in late September, while the Yen put in its low last month. [Read more…]
If you’re still asking what it will take to spark a sustained rally in equities, it’s only because you’re not paying attention.
How is it not the US Dollar?
Find me a stronger negative correlation with equities over the past half decade or so.
Todays chart focuses more specifically on the performance of US Dollars relative to Emerging Market Currencies.
Notice how whenever the Dollar goes down, stocks absolutely love it: [Read more…]