Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
Monday night, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Let’s get into it!
by JC
This is the video recording of the July 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.
by JC
It’s hard for me to have a conversation about the stock market without bringing up what’s happening in bonds.
Think about it like this, the market cap of all US Stocks is somewhere around $40 Trillion. For the bond market it’s over $120 Trillion.
Volatility in bonds tends to trickle down to other asset classes, especially stocks.
US Stocks really got going in the 4th quarter last year, once the US 10-year Note stopped falling in price.
I don’t believe that was a coincidence.
But at this point, Large Speculators have on their most aggressive short position in bonds ever.
So in other words, what is historically the “dumb money”, particularly at turning points, are betting more aggressively than ever that bond prices are going to fall and rates will now continue higher: [Read more…]
by JC
While many investors have been focused on arbitrary lagging indicators like the economy, we rather keep our attention on reality.
We’re grown adults. We don’t need bedtime stories to go to sleep at night. So fairytales about recessions, or inflations, or bidens are just not anything we’re interested in.
We get paid to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.
And the bet we’ve been making for a long time is that the negative correlation between the US Dollar and stocks will remain in place.
That bet has paid off handsomely for us and anyone listening.
So as investors we all have a choice. Do we bet that the correlation is all of a sudden going to change tomorrow? Or do we bet that things just remain the same?
Here is the US Dollar Index consolidating in what appears to be a classic continuation pattern, within an ongoing downtrend: [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of our July 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by JC
This is the video recording of the June 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.
by JC
This is the video recording of our June 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by JC
Some things are changing.
Have you noticed?
Let’s keep something in mind. During healthy market environments, you historically see correlations falling.
It’s when volatility spikes in bear markets that correlations all go to 1.
So are these recent divergences just further evidence that this is a strong market for stocks?
The breadth expansion and sector rotation we keep seeing certainly points to that.
So let’s take a look. [Read more…]
