This is the video recording of the December 2018 Conference Call.
Which Way Are Interest Rates Heading?
Bonds Funds are breaking out to new 3-month highs. This comes after consensus this September was for higher US rates, and therefore, lower prices for bonds. When the market is leaning too much in any one direction, the unwind of that extreme positioning can be intense. That’s what I believe has been happening throughout the 4th quarter.
Here are two charts that show rates could continue lower for some time. The first is a long-term chart of the US 10-year Yield failing to break out above the downtrend in place since 1981: [Read more…]
All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 12: David Keller, Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research
This week I’m thrilled to have David Keller on the podcast. He is a former President of the CMT Association and spent a long time at Fidelity, and Bloomberg before that. In this episode, the current Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha walks us through why is approaching the U.S. stock market from a more neutral perspective. We discuss US Treasury Bonds, Rates, Gold, Crude Oil and other assets that are making new highs like Palladium. I really enjoyed this conversation, especially how David compares trading to risk management as a pilot. He likes to fly planes when he’s not looking at charts. This was a fun chat. [Read more…]
[Options] Managing Vertical Spreads
So far in the early stages of this market correction (dare I say Bear Market? Too Soon?), I’ve been aggressively deploying Bear Call Spreads to attack bearish trading opportunities.
Bear Call Spreads are a version of a vertical spread that consist of a short call at or slightly out-of-the-money and a long call further out-of-the-money. The profit profile of bear call spreads typically maps out like this: [Read more…]
Where Is The Rest Of The World?
There is a reason we look at the stock market from a global perspective. It’s because we invest in a global market. Stocks in America weren’t going up the past couple of years because of what was happening in DC or New York. Stocks in the U.S. were going up because stocks all over the world were going up.
That changed earlier this year. While U.S. stocks keep making new highs through the Summer, global markets were not participating.
The question was simple: Were we going to get rotation back into Emerging Markets, Europe and other under performing areas around the world? Or was the U.S. just the last man standing and would catch down to the rest of the world. It’s clearly been the latter as stocks have come off significantly this Fall.
For clues about what we should expect in U.S. stocks, I think it’s important to continue to value the data coming in from global indexes. [Read more…]
Lack of Leadership Points To Lower Equity Prices
Two weeks ago we wrote that the weight of the evidence was suggesting the major indexes in India were getting ready to resume lower. While we were a few days early, most have resolved their consolidations lower. So the question now is, will they continue lower or will they be able to base and head higher? That’s the question we’re looking to answer in this post.
Nearly 20% Downside Ahead In Tumeric?
There have been many whipsaws in the Commodities’ market as of late, with few intermediate-term trends allowing us to trade them with well-defined risk. Every now and again the market provides us with a clear opportunity, this time it’s in the form of a breakdown in Tumeric.
Do All Gaps Need To Be Filled?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
There’s a saying among market participants that “all gaps need to be filled” or “all gaps are eventually filled”, but as with most market generalizations, this saying shouldn’t be taken at face value.
This post is going to discuss the four types of gaps and explain why this phrase is not something any market participant should take seriously.
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