Walter Deemer has been a Technical Analyst for 57 years, after starting his career at Merrill Lynch working for legendary Technician Bob Farrell. He is a founding member and past president of the CMT Association and coined the phrase, “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to!”, which is the title of one of the books he’s authored. We’re lucky to have someone on the podcast who was in the business at a time when interest rates were NOT in a downtrend! In this episode, Walter talks to us about what it was like charting in the 1960s and 70s and what sentiment was like as we entered the 1980s and one of the greatest economic expansions in America history. “Watch their feet, not their mouths”, is what Walter Deemer says when he encourages us to look at what investors are doing, rather than their opinions. This was a great conversation where we discuss what he calls our “Shoulda Fund” and what the Breakaway Momentum Strategy (breadth thrusts) means to him. I really enjoyed this one! [Read more…]
Why We’re Selling Gold
We’ve been bullish precious metals since the 4th quarter last year and even coming into 2019. We’re not gold bugs, thank goodness. The risk vs reward was just skewed in favor of the long side, for a variety of reasons.
One of those was the fact that commercial hedgers were actually net long. They’re never net long, and literally always hedged. For me, these Commitment of Traders reports are usually just noise, EXCEPT when they’re at extremes. We want to pay attention when the rubber-band is stretched. And so we did, and Gold ripped!
Now we have the opposite scenario. Commercial Hedgers last month had on their largest net short position in history (345,145 contracts): [Read more…]
“Everything Is Working This Year”
Think about how well everything is going this year! The S&P500 is up almost 20%. Bonds are up 22% and even Gold is up 17%! Heck Bitcoin has more than doubled! Can things get any better than this??? [Read more…]
Video: Taking A Step Back – Monthly Charts Making New Highs
How are you liking the day to day swings in the market? Is it too much for you? Go through this checklist and make sure these questions are answered before moving forward.
Today, I thought it would add value to take a step back and see what’s happening in the market bigger picture. They love distracting you with noisy headlines, but the way we approach it is: Whenever In Doubt, Zoom Out!
Here’s how we see things in Stocks bigger picture:
[Read more…]
3 Questions Every Investor Should Answer
We’re all here for different reasons. Each of us have our own time horizons. My risk tolerance is different than yours.
There are 3 questions every investor should answer before ever entering into a new position:
- Why am I here?
- What is my time horizon?
- How much am I willing to lose?
Let’s address each of these one by one: [Read more…]
An “Innovative” Short Idea
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Tuesday’s Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.
It seems almost everyone was on the same page here, getting involved in some way, shape, or form on the long side.
With that as our backdrop, let’s get into it.
Three Charts That Tell The Risk Story
Stocks are still trying to break out of this massive range since early 2018. After some selling early this week, the range is still intact. I think this chart of the Global 100 Index tells the story best: [Read more…]
How To Make Money In The Stock Market
This is a question I get a lot from friends and family or someone I just met that knows what I do for work.
What’s funny is that they don’t ask it quite like that. They won’t ask, “JC how do I make money in the market?”, even though that’s what they really mean to say. It’s usually more like, “Which pot stock do I buy?” or “Which Crypto Currency should I buy?”, depending on where we are in the cycle. It’s rarely an IF, and more of a Which One?
The way I see it, you can add the same amount of money every month for decades and just let it compound. If you’re disciplined enough to do it (most of you aren’t), I can see a good case for that strategy. But if you’re looking to get into more specific trades or investments, I think a well-defined risk vs reward strategy is the only way to profit. If you can’t manage risk responsibly you’ll be gone soon.
Here’s my take: [Read more…]
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