This is the video recording of the August 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.
Dollar Down? Buy the Pound!
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar sits atop the heap.
Major global currencies, including the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Singapore dollar, are limping lower against the greenback.
The long list could grow in coming sessions as momentum builds behind a sustained USD advance.
While the evidence suggests we lean in that direction, I always prepare to take the other side of a trade if and when the data changes.
So, what’s the best way to play a falling dollar?
Bill Baruch Is on “What the FICC?”
We’re having loads of fun with What the FICC?
Spencer and I talk about high-level intermarket trends, whatever markets catch our attention, and things that fly under the average investor’s radar.
Bill Baruch, the founder and president of Blue Line Futures, will join us tomorrow to share his insights on trends and markets.
I’m a big fan of Bill’s and the entire team at Blue Line – a consistent source of clarity. And I know Spencer’s dying to discuss yields…
It’s going to be a good one! Be sure to tune in tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. ET.
If you missed yesterday’s show, here’s a quick recap…
US Dollar Breakouts Mount
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
When it rains, it pours.
Markets chop sideways most of the time. This has been the reality for forex markets for much of the year.
But that’s starting to change as numerous US dollar pairs reach new 10-month highs. The dollar is taking down crucial levels while the US Dollar Index $DXY retests a year-to-date downtrend line and key former highs.
The peculiar coincidence sets up some potentially critical resolutions for these USD pairs.
If they fail, the dollar rally is likely over.
If they hold and additional USD breakouts materialize, selling pressure will intensify for many risk assets.
As of today, quite a few forex pairs are on the verge of supporting a sustained US dollar rally…
Energy Has 99 Problems but the Dollar Ain’t One
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
We have the smartest clients!
We might not always agree on the market direction at All Star Charts, but we all share that sentiment.
Our readers ask the best questions. And I selfishly benefit every time as it forces me to clarify my thoughts into a coherent response.
As I answered an email last night, I realized I had to share it with everyone:
2nd Half Looks Much Different
Track These Levels as the Dollar Bounces
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY is the most important chart in the world, again.
But, honestly, when is it not?
There’s no hiding from King Dollar.
It’s true: Currencies are not considered one of the three major asset classes (bonds, stocks, and commodities).
Nevertheless, fluctuations in the US dollar impact every asset worldwide – especially stocks and commodities.
And the probability of renewed headwinds for risk assets is increasing as the failed breakdown in the dollar could have legs…
August Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways
We held our August Monthly Strategy Session Wednesday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
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