From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
US treasuries finished 2023 with a bang, hitting our initial targets before Christmas.
But the long-bond trade is losing its luster.
Resistance is now coming into play as the bond market catches its breath…
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
US treasuries finished 2023 with a bang, hitting our initial targets before Christmas.
But the long-bond trade is losing its luster.
Resistance is now coming into play as the bond market catches its breath…
by JC
Santa didn’t show up this year for his annual Santa Claus Rally.
Historically, that usually precedes some underwhelming years for the S&P500.
This is the first leg of the January Trifecta, which also includes “The First 5 Days” and the “January Barometer”.
Does the S&P500 put in a positive First 5 days of the year?
As January goes, so goes the rest of the year, is how I learned it.
We’ll continue to monitor the rest of the Trifecta as the data comes in.
But first, let’s reiterate that the S&P500 did NOT rally during a seasonally strong period known as the Santa Claus Rally.
And while this “indicator” is normally reserved for the S&P500, I wanted to widen it out to other equities to get a broader look: [Read more…]
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.
As many of you know, something we’ve been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.
It’s really been working for us!
One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you’ll notice we’re only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online Retail, Solar, etc.
Then, like any good technician, we filter the list down to those closest to new highs.
This allows the cream of these strong groups to rise to the top and helps streamline our mission to identify technical breakouts in the top-performing stocks.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
It’s a new year with unlimited possibilities!
Even ol’ King Dollar is turning the page, embracing 2024 and everything it offers with open arms. It’s shaken off the selling pressure from 2023 and appears ready to turn over a new leaf.
But a bigger dollar rally might need a little help from a nearby friend.
More on this idea in a second.
First, let’s check out the US Dollar Index $DXY chart…
Healthcare is an early leader out of the clubhouse to start the year. We’ve already seen some big moves in names like Merck, Amgen, and Lilly.
This is a sector rotation that makes sense to us. And for this reason, today’s trade is in a name we think will play catchup to these leaders.
But first, lets zoom out to observe this chart of $PFE, highlighting the stock sitting near a level that has acted as strong support for numerous times over the past decade: [Read more…]
by JC
It’s a new year. But does that mean we need to see new trends?
Well I think we’re definitely going to see new trends emerging. But I have a strong suspicion that a lot of the old trends will remain in place as well.
If you recall, back in July we were looking at a bunch of the leading groups running into their former highs from late 2021.
These groups included Industrials, Semiconductors, Homebuilders and Mega-cap Technology. [Read more…]
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.
We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.
The goal is to catch the strongest names while they’re small and have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climb the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge.
We’re looking at up to 10x moves just to break into large-cap land!
Let’s dive into this week’s report and see what’s happening in some of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.
by JC
This is the video recording of our January 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session