- Energy and Financials switched spots this week but remain at the top of the relative strength rankings, with leadership evident across time frames and market cap levels. Over the past three months, no other sector is up more than 1%. The Financials sector is up 6% and Energy is up 8%.
- Our industry group heat map shows notable strength in Energy and Banks. Health Care, Technology and Telecom groups are coming under pressure.
[Options Premium] Weekly Jam Session w/ Sean McLaughlin
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
We like to say that dollars flow to where they are treated best. If that is the case, commodities could soon see a surge of inflows. The DBC/AGG ratio shows commodities surging to new multi-year highs versus bonds and the DBC/SPY ratio shows strength versus stocks as well. DBC has more than doubled up SPY on a YTD return basis (43% vs 18%). Commodities are proving again to be a place of relative safety when inflation and bond yields are on the rise. For many investors, commodity exposure isn’t even included as part of the asset allocation discussion. At least, not yet.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
This is the video recording of the October 7th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
10/07/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Run Your Own Race
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
My team just participated in our final cross country race of the season, and I was thrilled with our performance.
Our focus this season was effort and the improvement that follows. This week, our runners delivered. Big time!
We had 17 athletes compete. Of this group, 13 matched or posted their best time of the season — a few by wide margins.
These accomplishments didn’t show up on the leaderboard. The most competitive runners on the top teams ran mile after mile over the course of the summer. As you would expect, they received their fair share of medals and accolades.
But for us, it was a race full of individual victories.
[PLUS] Portfolio Perspectives – Neutral Evidence Calls for a More Balanced Stance
With our latest Weight of the Evidence Dashboard improving and now signaling a neutral stance, we have put cash to work across our portfolios to reflect a more balanced approach.
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: The risks associated with excessive optimism are no longer present as bulls are in full retreat. Recent spikes in volatility and downside pressure on price have ushered in an atmosphere of caution.Though we haven’t reached levels of fear or pessimism indicative of a complete unwind, active equity managers reducing their exposure to 55% and the II bull-bear spread at its lowest level since May 2020 speaks to a healthy reset. Relentless equity ETF inflows, elevated valuations, and slowing earnings growth all point to increased risks over longer timeframes. However, we are seeing early signs of opportunity re-entering the market from a tactical and cyclical perspective.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Fade the flows
Equity ETF inflows continued in September (16 months in a row) while commodities remain an unloved asset class from an ETF flow perspective. The equity space certainly looks crowded from a longer-term perspective. Weekly data, however, actually shows equity mutual funds and ETFs seeing outflows. This is evidence of some near-term fear on the part of equity investors and is consistent with the sentiment unwind being seen elsewhere.
[PLUS] October Weight of the Evidence Dashboard: Evidence Improves as Investors Turn More Cautious
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