In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about how important it is for Transports, Small-caps and Micro-caps to hold above their August lows. This is a major risk barometer for sure. The Dow Jones Transportation Avg held its early June lows and so did the Russell2000 Small-caps. As long as that remains the case, we believe the path of least resistance is higher for US equities. As a confirmation, we’re looking for Micro-caps to get back above their early summer lows. This period reminds us a lot of what we saw in 2016 right before a historic rally in Stocks around the world!
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[Options Premium] September 2019 Conference Call Video Recording
This is the video recording of the September 2019 Conference Call for Members of All Star Options [Read more…]
Multi-decade Breakout? Or Another False Start?
Today we’re taking a look at an index that often gets ignored. The Value Line Geometric Index is currently flirting with a multi-decade breakout. This is an equally weighted index using a geometric average, so the daily change is closest to the median stock price change. It’s a much broader measure of the market vs something like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. [Read more…]
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording August 2019
This is the recording from the live August 2019 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
The Most Important Monthly Charts In The World
It’s my favorite exercise each month. There is nothing else I do throughout my entire process that provides as much value as my Monthly Chart Review. Here’s what stood out to me this month: [Read more…]
Checking In On The Underperformers
This could be a major top in the US Stock Market. It could be a historic top like 2007 or 1929, maybe even 1987. This is certainly a possible outcome.
Something else to consider is that betting on these outcomes is rarely a profitable endeavor. They make movies about the heroes who bet heavily on the financial collapse of 2008 and made fortunes. We talk about these fund managers like legends. What they don’t make movies about are the infinite number of investors over the years who have bet on such outcomes, and were wrong instead. I guess Hollywood doesn’t think those stories will sell.
I understand the bearish thesis for US Stocks. In fact, we always take the other side of our opinions and try to poke wholes in a given theme. We’ve been in the camp that since most stocks have gone down to sideways over the past 19 months, this is a classic cyclical bear market. It has gone on through both price and time, not just one of the two. I don’t care how you slice it, this was a bear market, and possibly still is.
Now, whenever in doubt, zoom out right? I think we can agree that the rallies of 2016 and 2017 deserved a rest. So the question is whether this “rest”, or digestion of gains, if you will, is a distributive top that will lead to a much more substantial decline? Or is this a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend that we can argue began in early 2016 and, even longer-term, the 2009 lows.
Yes recession, and yield curves and the fed and trump and all that. Yes I know. We’re going to focus on price, however, to figure out what’s going on. [Read more…]
Video: Stocks Near Former Lows Relative to Gold & Bonds
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk the relative performance of stocks. When assets are in strong uptrends, they not only perform on an absolute basis, but they tend to outperform their alternatives. With new highs in the S&P500 last month, we’ve seen nothing but lower highs relative to both Gold and US Treasury Bonds. In fact, on a relative basis, the S&P500 is actually down to its late December 2018 lows. Will they hold or confirm a massive distributive top? I think the resolution will tell us a lot about the strength of the current stock market.
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[Chart of the Week] Medical Device Stocks In Uptrends
When I go through my charts, I see all kinds of different trends, patterns and consolidations around the world. It really depends on what I’m looking at. However, one area that has been a consistent outperformer is in Medical Device stocks. The way I see it, these are just Tech stocks stuck in the bodies of Healthcare names. So our theme of “bullish tech” makes sense, even though on paper they’re Healthcare stocks. [Read more…]
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