This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Searching for Value Overseas
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
For most of my career, I’ve listened to fundamental analysts make the argument that investors should be overweight international stocks because they’re “cheaper” than US stocks.
This has been the case for a long time now, and it’s merely a function of the fact that there are far more value and cyclical stocks overseas.
But, since value stocks have been out of favor for so long, ex-US stocks have severely underperformed domestic markets.
Growth has been the place to be for the last decade, and for this reason the alpha has been with the tech-heavy US stock market over its global peers.
But now that we’re seeing the tide shift in favor of value, we’re also seeing early signs of reversals in the US versus the world relative trends.
There’s still more work to be done before we have conviction that we want to favor international stocks, but the weight of the evidence continues to move in that direction.
In today’s post, we’ll discuss what we’re seeing from these relative trends and then go over some areas of the global equity market that are likely to benefit from the value over growth theme.
Get ‘Em While They’re Hot!
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Commodities are on fire!
Crude oil is trading above 90, its derivatives are printing fresh highs, and natural gas is beginning to rip – again.
But, as we’ve pointed out in recent posts, it’s not just energy that’s working. We’re seeing broad strength in commodity markets.
Soybean oil is marching higher along with the rest of the bean complex, and corn hit our initial upside objective earlier this week.
Today, we’re going to outline another ag contract that’s setting up for its next leg higher: coffee.
International Hall of Famers (02-04-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
By looking at various ratios relative to where they have been over the past year, we get a sense of investor risk appetite from an intermarket perspective. The pairwise comparisons in our risk off – risk on Range-O-Meter show a decisive tilt toward risk off assets over the past month. A few (Staples vs Discretionary, Large-Cap vs Small-Cap, Yen vs Aussie Dollar) are nearing new 52-week extremes favoring the risk-off side of the ratio. We could get some near-term relief from the intense selling of January, some of that has been seen this week already. But if we are seeing broad and sustainable strength, I expect it will be evident by a decisive move toward the risk-on side of our range-o-meter.
[Options] It’s Not This Simple
I’ve received a few questions from readers about playing bounces in some oversold stocks.
The most recent was Facebook, er… Meta (whatever).
An opportunistic trader hit me with this question:
Is anybody interested in taking a position in these heavily discounted calls in $FB today?
Discounted? Au contraire, mon frère.
Shares of $FB stock may be “discounted” after getting shellacked to the tune of -26% or so. But there are no discounts to be found anywhere on the options chain. [Read more…]
Young Aristocrats (February 2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.
These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve.
That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.”
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
By adding our technical analysis to the mix, the Young Aristocrat setups give you the opportunity to own the best of the market’s future blue-chip winners before they become must-own household names.
Often, the strongest performers in this universe and even the Aristocrats themselves pay relatively small dividends.
This is usually because the stock appreciation makes it tough to keep up with the payout — even for companies that consistently grow their yield in the double-digits! For this reason, we don’t have a minimum threshold for the dividend.
What we’re really doing here is creating a list of quality stocks based on their ability to persistently grow their shareholder return.
And maybe the best part? This list is not just designed for long-term investors. Any kind of investor or trader can use this list as it helps generate ideas across all timeframes, even the short term.
Remember, some of the most important filters we use for this list are momentum, relative strength, and proximity to new highs.
So, let’s keep it real: These stocks are going up across all time horizons.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
This is the video recording of the February 2nd Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
02/03/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
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