This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Microcaps Lead The Way Lower
From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
Sellers have a hold on equity markets as internal weakness expands and downside momentum picks up.
When looking for evidence of additional downside risk, some of the most valuable information we have is in the price action of the weakest areas. The rationale is that they should break down first and lead the rest of the market lower.
With how poorly the smallest stocks have performed this year, the Russell Microcap Index $IWC is the perfect signpost to help us determine the next move for stocks.
The chart below shows IWC resolving to the downside from a descending triangle formation. It just closed at its lowest level in roughly three years.
Energy Wins & Utilities Lose Again
Under the Hood (10-02-2023)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended September 30, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.
Follow the Flow (10-02-2023)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.
And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
Gold Bugs Lose Support
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Precious metals no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt.
They no longer represent an opportunity cost, either.
No, gold and crew carry downside risk – nothing else!
What changed since last week?
Gold futures undercut a critical level of interest…
Growth vs. Value Is at a Critical Level
From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
Coming into July, the Nasdaq 100 had already achieved record-setting returns through the first six months of the year. Over the past quarter, however, the trend has cooled off as stocks have struggled with overhead supply.
The same could be said for the relative trend as growth stocks have paused their advance versus the overall market.
The chart below shows the Nasdaq 100 versus Russell 3000 ratio coiling beneath a critical level of interest.
Saturday Morning Chartoons: S&P Tests Support
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
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