I was back on The Compound & Friends podcast this week with Josh and Michael.
They’re both old friends of mine, so it’s just us arguing and yelling at each other for an hour.
Always fun.
Hope you enjoy!
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
We’ve been loud about energy lately. And how can we not be?
Energy stocks were the most resilient during the H1 selloff and are by far the best-performing sector off the 2020 lows. Every afternoon, energy quietly leads the pack into the close, whether the market is green or red on the day.
But the recent rally in stocks has started to fizzle. And even energy is beginning to feel the downside pressure.
While everyone scrambles to label the recent rally, gearing up for the next leg higher, or preparing for the world’s end, we want to focus on the leaders – energy!
If this leadership group starts to fall, it could be an early warning sign of broad selling on the horizon.
And, with Labor Day upon us, it just so happens the energy sector ETF $XLE is retesting a critical shelf of former highs.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
We look at a lot of charts. And believe it or not, many of them are absolute messes. Sideways, choppy, and trendless describe most markets right now.
It’s just a fact.
But we always find those big bases and tight continuation patterns on the verge of breaking out that keep us turning on our computers every morning. And the market I want to share with you today has both!
Lets’ take a look at coffee.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Back in early July, we were looking to buy a bounce in natural gas. Let’s just say it was a success, as our target was hit within weeks.
But you have to remember the environment back then. Commodities had experienced a broad sell-off. And natural gas and agricultural contracts such as wheat and cotton had recently experienced drawdowns exceeding 40%.
It might have seemed like a tough call at the time, but for us it was clear. The risk/reward was in our favor as natty pulled back to test a key level. It was that simple.
Fast forward almost two months, and we’re back for more. Our risk is well-defined, and cyclical areas of the market are assuming leadership.
Today, I’ll share how we’re gearing up for a fresh leg higher in natty gas.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
I can’t think of an area of the market we like more than energy.
Both energy stocks and commodities held up better than their peers during the recent bout of selling pressure. And now that they’re starting to reclaim key levels, we want to put our bullish bias to work.
I recently expressed my growing unease with a short crude oil position, given the mounting bullish evidence in energy. So, let’s talk about how I plan to flip the book long crude oil futures on a break higher.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Markets constantly provide valuable information. But it’s up to us to listen.
Of course, it’s easy to get caught in a narrative or bias surrounding a particular market. It’s part of the human condition.
And it’s almost a prerequisite.
In order to step up to the line and assume risk, we need to have a certain level of conviction. At the same time, we must remain open-minded and flexible, willing to receive new information and update our priors.
It’s a balancing act.
And energy is one area of the commodity market that’s keeping us on our toes.
Commodities are showing up on the green side of the screen these days as we witness a recovery. One of the commodities that have displayed strength time and again is Natural Gas. The price is currently trading at an all-time high and we’re here to revisit those crucial levels.
This is the recording from the live August 2022 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframes. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps, and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks, and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full: