Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he’s as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we’re lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one! [Read more…]
A U.S. Stock Market Crash is a Real Possibility
A US stock market crash is a real possibility.
We have not been in an environment where this was on the table for a long time. For those of you who know me, I think I’ve proven that I’m not one of these end of the world guys. We can probably all agree that I call it like I see it and have no directional bias. I walk around daily proud to not care whether the market doubles or gets cut in half. We just want to be on the right side of the trend.
The risk for most of the month has been skewed in favor of the bears. As breadth has gotten worse and momentum has confirmed downside pressure, I believe there is unlimited risk in the market right now. Nothing is out of the question.
In my opinion, we are in a stock market environment where a crash is entirely possible. Now, just because it is possible doesn’t mean it will come. I think of it like the city of Miami, where I grew up, during hurricane season. Just because it’s the season doesn’t guarantee that a storm will come, but it is absolutely the time to be aware that one can show up and destroy your home or even kill you if you’re not prepared. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2018
This is the video recording of the October 2018 Conference Call. There are a series of developments that have transpired over the past month that we need to be aware of. The bearish implications of these events has us approaching the stock market from a much more neutral perspective.
In the market, it is more important to know when to take your foot off the gas than it is to know when to step on it. We have our defensive players out on the field right now. Here is the video in full:
Options Affords Us Maximum Flexibility in Rapidly Changing Markets
Notice anything different the last couple weeks?
Unless you’ve been on an African safari during the entire month of October, you’ve probably noticed the dramatic shift in market tone. What has been working for the majority of the year has stopped working. The low-volatility, bullish setups playbook has been rendered ineffective in just a couple short weeks. As many of us were recently reminded, and many of you might be learning now for the first time, when market regimes change — the process is usually swift, messy, and confusing.
If you’re a long-only swing trader in this market environment, good luck. You’re probably in for a wild ride. [Read more…]
We’re Coming To Chicago Next Month!
Chicago is one of my favorite cities in the country. November 7-9th I’ll be out there with the team meeting with clients and giving presentations. You’re invited to join us Thursday Nov 8th at the Chicago Board of Trade for a Free event hosted by the CMT Association.
Here are the details of the event:
141 W. Jackson Blvd.
[Options Premium] The Bounce Reveals the Weakest Names to Short
The biggest rallies happen in corrective or bear markets. They are nice, but often temporary. Stay nimble, my Trader friends.
— Sean McLaughlin 📈 (@chicagosean) October 16, 2018
I posted this on twitter today as the latest round of dip buyers were tripping all over themselves to buy up any and all perceived bargains being offered by Mr. Market. While the cumulative bounce for the past three trading days has been impressive, I’ve traded through too many corrections and bear markets to be tricked this easily into thinking the storm has fully passed.
Instead, I’m welcoming bounces like this because it more easily reveals the weakest names that are struggling to rebound. The stocks that haven’t bounced or are struggling in relative terms to rise with their brethren, these are the names we want to press into on the short side. They are the ones likely to lead the carnage on the next leg down.
Next up on our target list: Intel $INTC. [Read more…]
[Premium] Marijuana Stocks
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Marijuana stocks have never been that HIGH on our list of areas to look at given their smaller market-cap, average trading volume, and short price history often inhibits larger players from participating in them, however, the strong performance as of late has drum up interest in the space and increased the number of stocks that meet our criteria to analyze them. This post will be a quick update on what we’re seeing from a price perspective. [Read more…]
Podcast: Panel Discussion At Traders4ACause 2018
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