The bounce in US stocks continues off the Christmas Eve low, but it is showing signs of short-term exhaustion. Does this mean we go right back to lows? Not necessarily. I’m in the camp that some sideways chop would be constructive for the markets overall. As such, I’m in the mode of looking for smart delta neutral trading plans. [Read more…]
Watching Metals For Interest Rate Signals
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Yesterday I discussed how we use ratio charts to identify trends for both trading opportunities and information that we can use to make inferences about the stock market’s next major move. Today I want to look at an inter-market relationship between Base Metals and Precious Metals that may help provide information about where interest rates are headed.
Stocks Have Rallied, Now What?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The S&P 500 has rallied more than 10% off its late December lows, making the reward/risk on the long side a lot less favorable as many of the major indexes and sectors approach overhead supply. When the market is at a point on an absolute basis where the weight of the evidence is mixed, the use of ratio charts to identify the trends that are happening under the surface becomes even more valuable. [Read more…]
This Is A Privilege, Not A Right
Let’s get something straight: being a market participant is not a right, it is a privilege. You have a responsibility to yourself, or your clients, to manage risk appropriately. Our goal is to profit while systematically having protection in place to adjust risk according to the environment. Not only is it not easy, the smartest minds in human history have failed in their attempts to profit from the market. See: The Market Owes You Nothing
A long time ago Mike Bellafiore, from SMB Capital, engraved in my mind that we need to be grateful for the opportunity to participate in the market. This isn’t a right. We need to be humble and know that Mr. Market is here to take it all away at any given moment. The worst trade of your life could be the next one if you’re not careful. [Read more…]
[Premium] Details For January 2019 Conference Call
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call held for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday January 15th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call: [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Which Way From Here? How About Sideways?
The debate seems to be raging between Bulls and Bears as to what’s happening right now. The Bulls are declaring THE bottom is in and we’re going up from here. The Bears are smugly observing what they think is just another dead cat bounce on our way to lower prices. Who’s right?
What if they are both wrong?
Ms. Market loves to frustrate the largest amount of participants she can, as often as she can. And it seems to me the best way to frustrate the most people right now would be for U.S. stocks to tighten up and grind sideways for a little while. With that in mind, we have a nice ETF candidate to sell some delta neutral premium in while the next market direction sorts itself out. [Read more…]
How US Dollar Weakness Will Impact Stocks
In the final Chart of the Week for 2018, we looked at the US Dollar reaching a key upside objective and then rolling over to finish the year on a sour note. I started out my Q1 2019 Playbook emphasizing the importance of the US Dollar Index in 2019 and I think we’re already seeing the implications of a weaker Dollar. I also think this trend is likely to remain in place.
The way we saw it, if the US Dollar were to just break through these levels, without even acknowledging it, then there is most likely a severe flight to safety away from stocks and that’s why the Dollar is getting bid up. The counter-argument there is that if the Dollar is weakening, stocks would most likely do well in that environment. That has been our thesis coming into the year. [Read more…]
All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 14: Barry Ritholtz, Chairman & CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management
This week on the podcast we have the “Blog-Father” Barry Ritholtz. Barry’s Big Picture Blog has been a must read for me going back to 2006. He was one of the only voices of reason throughout 2007-2008 warning everyone of the coming collapse in stocks. He is also the author of one of my favorite books on that period, “Bailout Nation“. Today, Barry is the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of RWM, the hottest wealth management firm in the world right now. In this episode, Barry takes us back 20 years to his early blogging days, he tells us what it was like covering the financial crisis in 2008 and then writing a book about it. Today he’s focused more of his attention on behavior finance and I really enjoyed some of his examples about our flaws and what we can do about them. We discussed a lot during this podcast: Emotional responses, evolutionary traits and the stupidity of people. Barry hosts one of the best podcasts in finance, Bloomberg’s Masters In Business, so it was nice to flip the script and pick his brain for an hour. Enjoy! [Read more…]
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