This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Is Risk Appetite on Board?
From the Desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza
Stocks have enjoyed a powerful rally off their summer lows, as bulls have been in control for about two months now.
A lot of technical damage has been repaired during this time.
The outlook from sentiment and seasonality assure us the environment is ripe for a bottom.
Breadth thrusts are stacking up and suggesting we could be in the early stages of a new bull market.
And risk appetite is gradually reentering the market, supporting the bullish price action.
Today, we’ll review one of our favorite intermarket relationships, the discretionary versus staples ratio.
Update Your Priors
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Markets constantly provide valuable information. But it’s up to us to listen.
Of course, it’s easy to get caught in a narrative or bias surrounding a particular market. It’s part of the human condition.
And it’s almost a prerequisite.
In order to step up to the line and assume risk, we need to have a certain level of conviction. At the same time, we must remain open-minded and flexible, willing to receive new information and update our priors.
It’s a balancing act.
And energy is one area of the commodity market that’s keeping us on our toes.
International Hall of Famers (08-19-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
[Options Premium] This Won’t Win Us a Peabody Award
…but it might win us cash-money gains, which is all we’re really here for anyway. Give the participation trophies to the strivers.
Today’s trade comes from a “dirty” sector. One some investors don’t like to talk about in polite company. And it certainly won’t win us any friends in the ESG crowd. But again, who cares?
Let’s get right to it.
Keep Your Eyes on Prior-Cycle Highs
From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley
The market environment has been shifting in favor of the bulls all summer.
Breadth thrusts are firing as participation beneath the surface expands. Risk assets – commodities and stocks alike – are reclaiming critical levels of former support.
And our bull market rebirth checklist is triggering four out of five criteria.
This is a huge departure from earlier in the year.
But one aspect of the environment remains the same – interest rates. Yes, rates have come off their June peak. And, yes, US yields have paused at a logical level marked by a series of former highs.
That’s all true, and it all makes perfect sense.
But we still find ourselves in a rising-rate market as the underlying uptrend remains intact – for now.
This Rally Have Legs?
2 to 100 Club (08-17-2022)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.
As many of you know, something we’ve been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It’s really been working for us!
One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you’ll notice we’re only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online Retail, Solar, etc.
Then, like any good technician, we filter the list down to those closest to new highs.
This allows the cream of these strong groups to rise to the top and helps streamline our mission to identify technical breakouts in the top-performing stocks.
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