Overall it was a decent day for the indices, considering we had data out at 10 a.m. ET and then FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.
I’d still like to see the indices trend higher. Specifically, I’d like to see $SPY 387.80.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
Overall it was a decent day for the indices, considering we had data out at 10 a.m. ET and then FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.
I’d still like to see the indices trend higher. Specifically, I’d like to see $SPY 387.80.
Happy New Year everyone. How are you playing it?
This morning, our analyst team was bouncing ideas around when I posed the group this question:
“It’s the beginning of a new year. Do we want to continue buying strength (as we have been)? Or do we want to buy some well-selected dips on stocks in sectors we like?”
In other words, what’s our appetite?
The prevailing sentiment that won out was that we have been buying strength — and that has worked well in some areas, particularly homebuilders, Chinese stocks, and metals stocks. But the reward-to-risk opportunities right now may be more favorable in the “buy-the-dip” camp.
So with this in mind, let’s take a look at a stock in the semiconductors sector that has our attention. [Read more…]
by JC
Doing some basic math, the odds continue to favor a strong year for stocks in 2023.
There are some people out there who think the Nasdaq is the stock market. There are others who “only buy growth stocks”.
I don’t know what kind of masochist you need to be to think that way, but both of those are very foolish approaches to life.
The Nasdaq is full of growth stocks. And growth stocks historically underperform and make little progress when interest rates are rising. I’m not sure if you heard, but interest rates have been rising!
Since the Stock Market bottomed in June, the majority of stocks and sectors are up and to the right. It’s only the biggest losers that are down, and there aren’t that many of them. It’s really just those nasdaq / growthy stocks that the masochists are focused on.
From a seasonal perspective, Pre-election years are historically some of the most bullish years we have in the market. Here’s what the 4-year cycle looks like as we head into 2023: [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
S&P futures are indicating at the 3,850 mark.
We need to maintain that level in order for this index to head higher.
by JC
This is the video recording of our January 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by Ian Culley
It’s the 2023 inaugural weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
And we’re kicking it off with the US Dollar Index $DXY!
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
I’m not big into seasonality.
I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price.
Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances awareness of any given market – which should be a priority for any trader or investor.
I have multiple almanacs on my desk, including the Stock Trader’s Almanac by Jeff Hirsch and Christopher Mistal and the Spectra Markets Trader Handbook and Almanac by Brent Donnelly and Justin Ross.
I recommend both.
Like most indicators, extreme seasonal tendencies provide the best information. And I can’t ignore the strong positive seasonality for the US dollar as it enters its best month of the year.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
We saw a nice pop in the morning and then a hard fade pretty much right after the market opened. Feels like a repeat of last year.
The market did try to hang on to the $SPX 3,800 level most of the day. It’s all about this level right now; a true break below and we can see 3,780.
We need back above 3,840 for a rally higher.