- The Technology sector remains at the top of our relative strength rankings. While mega-cap leadership is helpful, sector strength goes beyond that. It is the top-ranked sector from an equal-weight perspective as well as among small-cap sectors. This is also reflected in our industry group heat map, which shows strength out of the Hardware and Semiconductor groups across market cap levels.
- Consumer Staples saw a big jump in the rankings this week, and there is plenty of improvement within the Food & Staples Retailing and Household & Personal Products groups within the sector.
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This idea came up in passing in our ASC+Plus weekly Townhall yesterday. The messy action in Copper looks a whole lot like the messy action in Berkshire Hathaway. After peaking in Q2 both have moved sideways. Copper has been more volatile than Berkshire, moving quickly to go nowhere. They are both up more than 20% for the year, but that has been true since late-April. It’s interesting that neither broke out to new highs in November and neither has (yet) broken down to new lows in December. When we get new highs or new lows from one or both of these bellwethers, we will definitely take notice. Until then it’s more sideways actions, with volatility in search of resolution.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
This is the video recording of the December 9th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
12/09/21 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: For Your 2022 Outlook, Take Price Over Projections
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
It’s that time of year again — a time when our inboxes are overflowing with reflections on the year that was and speculations on the year that will be.
We used to wait until the year ended before recapping its events and previewing what lies ahead. But these annual outlooks have been showing up earlier and earlier in recent years. In fact, I think I saw my first 2022 outlook piece before the calendar flipped to December…
I read my fair share of outlook pieces and would not go so far as to say they are all useless. I prefer those that identify a few broad themes for consideration over those filled with detailed forecasts and a veneer of precision. After all, we should recognize the limits in the usefulness of even the best prediction pieces.
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: Volatility is on the rise and the bulls are in retreat. The recent downside pressure on risk assets has driven investors to take caution. Yet, pessimism remains subdued as volatility was unable to stoke real fear. Now that the market is beginning to rebound, the bullish case needs to prove it deserves the benefit of the doubt. Price needs to justify the risk appetite that still lingers and participation needs to expand. On the flip side, another spike in volatility could woo the bears out of their seats and onto the dance floor. The market finds itself at a critical juncture heading toward year end. The action that unfolds in the coming weeks could well shape investors’ approach to risk in 2022.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Despite Some Caution, Investors Still Love Risk
Most of our sentiment indicators show more caution on the part of investors. When looking at Semiconductors, which are making new highs on an absolute and relative basis, the appetite for risk looks undiminished. It’s hard to make the case that investors are running scared when risk-on behavior is still widespread. While a complete wash-out in optimism makes for a cleaner market bottom, you need bulls and an appetite for risk to have a bull market.
[PLUS] December Playbook: Trends, Opportunities, Risks
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
[PLUS] December Weight of the Evidence Dashboard: After Tests, Breadth Thrusts Would Affirm The Bullish Case
[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends
- Energy slipped three spots (from 4th to 7th) in the large-cap rankings last week, and the sector appears even weaker beneath the surface. It’s in the ninth spot on an equal-weight basis, and conditions are deteriorating within the mid-cap and small-cap energy space.
- Technology remains atop the overall rankings, but relative strength on a short-term basis is from coming from Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples.
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