If you’ve been reading our blog for a while, you’re probably familiar with our process and how we identify reward/risk scenarios that are ridiculously skewed in our favor. With that said, the way we accomplish that doesn’t always look exactly the same. Sometimes we’re buying breakouts and trading with the trend, other times we’re trading against the trend for mean reversion, and other times it’s some combination of strategies.
Berkshire Hathaway Breaks Out Leading U.S. Stocks Higher
Life isn’t just about Tesla gossip and Apple at a trillion. There is plenty of “less sexy” market behavior to be paying attention to right now that should have serious implications for the overall market. While boring to some, we have a huge amount of respect for Berkshire Hathaway stock. The breakout we got this week is likely to be the beginning of a 25% move higher which should take this one close to a $700B market cap and we want to be buying! [Read more…]
[Premium] Fading The Mid and Small-Cap Bounce
This entire year we’ve been talking about under-performance in the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market. To take advantage of that we’ve wanted to be shorting, or at least avoiding longs in, the weakest names in sectors like Public Sector Banks, Infrastructure, Metals, Media, Realty, etc. Last month many of our downside price targets were hit from a tactical perspective and we took a more neutral approach, waiting for better entries on the short side. Now that we’ve seen a multi-week bounce off the lows in the mid and small-cap indexes, we’re going to revisit the space for the best reward/risk setups on the short side.
Checking In On Dow Theory
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
There’s been a lot of talk about equity market breadth both in the US and globally, but one thing I’ve not seen mentioned throughout the debate is Dow Theory. While there are five tenets of Dow Theory, today I want to focus on the aspect regarding confirmation among the three averages: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, The Dow Jones Transportation Average, and The Dow Jones Utility Average, by assessing their primary trends.
Podcast Season 2 – Ep 2 – Todd Sohn, Technical Analyst at Strategas
Sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily – Todd Sohn does amazing work on a daily basis. We’re constantly communicating and sharing ideas with one another. I can tell you for a fact, there are few people in this world who look through as many charts as Todd. Our process is similar so I have really been looking forward to this conversation. We covered a lot of topics in this episode including U.S. Stocks and the sector rotation we’ve been seeing underneath the surface. Sentiment is a big part of their work over at Strategas and I find it really interesting how he incorporates analyst ratings to find ideas in the market. This is a good one! [Read more…]
Are Agribusiness Stocks On The MOO-ve?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Sector rotation in this market continues and the Agribusiness and Chemical Industries within the Materials Sector look to be heating up. While their performance on a relative basis is lackluster, on an absolute basis there are several setups offering reward/risk scenarios skewed in our favor.
Two-Year Trading Range Can’t Contain This Stock
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Earlier this year I discussed what I look for when picking a bottom in a stock using Twitter as an example. Today I want to look at The Container Store because it’s exhibiting similar characteristics that suggest the stock has begun a new long-term uptrend.
China Under-Performance and The US Equity Market
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Every so often we hear the narrative that under-performance from China’s stock market is a canary in the coal mine for US Equities, and the recent tariff tantrums have brought this discussion front and center. Today I want to look at this relationship to see if it has any merit or if it’s just a smart sounding soundbite that you can use around the office water cooler.
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