One of the things that often gets underrated is the power of simplicity. What’s wrong with only looking at price and focusing in only on what matters most? I get that you love your moving averages and candlesticks and all sorts of momentum indicators. But the most important indicator is still price. So that’s what we’re going to look at today using OHLC Bar Charts.
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording January 2018
This is the video recording of the January Conference Call. It’s our first of the year and I just want to reiterate that we want to forget everything we thought we knew last year and approach the current market environment with an open mind. To stay true to ourselves, we want to start from the top and work our way all the way down, responsibly weighing all of the evidence along the way. Beginning with a global macro perspective, we’ll then break things down to the Indexes, then the Sectors & Industry Groups and finish with the stock ideas themselves.
I think there is an overwhelming theme of strength in natural resources, particularly metals and energy. The would be a consistent with a weaker U.S. Dollar and higher Interest Rate environment. Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:
[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday January 17th at 7PM ET
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We’ve been extremely bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there and how we want to manage risk moving forward! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday January 17th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
[Premium] These Are The Natural Gas Stocks We Want To Buy
Natural Gas stocks? When was the last time you heard me talk about those?? There is a time and a place for everything. We’ve discussed the relative strength in Energy stocks as a group lately and have pointed out some interesting opportunities, particularly in the Oil Refinery space, Valero especially. That has worked very well in our favor the past few months.
But moving forward I think there are some extremely favorable risk vs reward scenarios within the Natural Gas stocks as well as all of them as a group. [Read more…]
[Premium] The Gold Trade For 2018
We want to go into 2018 forgetting everything we thought we once knew. The process of approaching every market with an open mind is something that I think is very important. Our goals of profitability need to outweigh any emotions driven by ego.
I’ve been very critical of Gold, Silver and Precious Metals stocks since the Summer of 2016 when they hit the upside objectives we gave them earlier that year. Since then, it’s been a sideways mess, with fast moves lower and abrupt mean reversions higher. These are characteristics of messy markets, not trending ones like U.S. Stocks were for example since, coincidentally (I doubt it) that Summer of 2016.
Today we’re going to go over the best risk vs reward propositions in the Gold market as we enter 2018:
[Premium] My 2018 Stock Market Outlook From The Top/Down
We do not make end of 2018 forecasts. I think it’s irresponsible to think that we have any idea of what will happen a year from now. We want to reevaluate our thesis as time goes on and new data comes in. This reevaluation process occurs consistently throughout the entire year. How else can we manage risk responsibly? Are we supposed to place our bets after New Years and just hope for the best? Come on.
Take a deep breath. Forget everything we did this year and only think about where we are today. The idea is to keep an open mind and keep every option available. If we’ve loved something in 2017, that doesn’t mean we can’t hate it in 2018. Just because we’ve been shorting something this year, doesn’t mean we can’t be buyers in the next coming quarters. We’re not here to be right, we’re here to make money. We can’t forget that and let ego take priority over profitability. It’s important to be aware of our cognitive behavior patterns and this is one of them.
Lastly, we want to ignore what the year-to-date returns were for different asset classes. I think the arbitrary Jan 1 to Dec 31st performance doesn’t help us identify the direction of primary trends. So to point out that because one asset did better than another asset throughout 2017 does not necessarily mean one is in an uptrend as the other is not. We want to judge each and every asset on its own merit whether it is a stock, index, sector, commodity, currency or intermarket relationship.
Today we will be focusing specifically on the stock market. We’ll go sector by sector and bring in what we’re seeing internationally to develop a thesis. Then we’ll break it down to individual stock ideas with favorable risk vs reward opportunities. Don’t think of this like we need to buy all of the stocks mentioned here. It’s really to get an idea of what we should be looking for, and then if there are some of these specific ideas that meet our objectives and risk parameters, then even better!
We’re here to be very selfish and picky. This isn’t about giving all of them a chance. We’re here to only buy the best stocks that we feel meet our specific goals. They are different for all of us. Here I am presenting what I think tells the story for the current stock market environment and then point out specific pockets of strength so that we can try and profit from them.
Ping me if you have any questions:
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording December 2017
This is the recording from the December 2017 Conference Call. In this 65 minute video I walk you through what I think are the most important charts in the world. These help me tell the entire story of where money is flowing to and where it is flowing from. We want to be positioned in favorable risk vs reward opportunities going into the end of the year and first quarter. I think I do a good here job of laying out the framework for the current market environment. We talk about stocks, both US and around the world, Commodities including Crude Oil and Gold, Currencies such as US Dollars, Euro and Cryptos, and of course interest rates and the bond market.
For me it’s a top/down weight-of-the-evidence approach that I think works best. In this month’s call I think we focus more on the bottoms/up stock specific analysis than in recent months. In today’s environment we want to have more exposure in the individual stocks than in the indexes themselves. [Read more…]
[Premium] Trade Ideas in Consumer Staples Stocks
I have a workbook of charts where I keep the entire list of stocks in the Consumer Staples Sector. With the Equally-weighted Consumer Staples Index breaking out of a multi-year base, we want to find the stocks that are going to lead this sector higher.
Here is a list of the ones that stand out which are showing strength and a risk vs reward skewed in favor of the bulls following the longer-term and shorter-term uptrend in Consumer Staples: [Read more…]
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