This is the video recording of the April 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
04/22/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
This is the video recording of the April 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
04/22/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaways:
The word perspective has multiple definitions. The dictionary we have at our house lists eight. For me, the most relevant of those have to do with seeing the interrelationships of relevant facts and ideas as well as those that deal with distant time frames & horizons.
When it comes to investing, keeping perspective is the difference between success and failure. A successful approach to portfolio management can be built on a sturdy three-legged stool of perspective focusing on:
We need to keep in mind how we are making sense of incoming information, how our preferences are changing in light of that information, and how far out in the future we are looking when it comes to how we are positioning our portfolios. When we lose track of any of these, the stool topples and the noise of the market can crescendo to a deafening din. This seems especially to be the case in the current environment, which offers many compelling arguments that reach starkly different conclusions.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key takeaway: The heat has been turned up on our sentiment indicators, and optimism is back to a full boil as we see indexes in the US and around the world move to new highs. While it takes bulls to have a bull market, sentiment running too far ahead of reality can be a recipe for some churn. While breadth remains strong and economic & earnings data comes in ahead of expectations, investor optimism may well be rewarded. If breadth falters in a meaningful way and/or incoming data starts to fall short of expectations, the overheated sentiment backdrop would pose an increased burn risk. Investors who can’t tolerate the heat might want to step out of the kitchen for a breath of fresh air.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: New Highs Across the Board
Large-cap US Indexes registered new, all-time highs last week as breadth slowly rebounds after a period of digestion. Optimism may be running hot, but at least it’s producing bull markets.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: Broad market strength gets front page treatment. German Bund yields pointing the way higher for US Treasury yields. Economic activity is booming, holding true to the post-recession historical pattern.
The Energy sector’s pullback from its March peak has finally caught up to it in our relative strength rankings. Even though Energy remains the top-performing sector in 2021, it plummeted from third to ninth in this week’s rankings. If it is unable to get back in gear in short order, it’s time in the leadership group could come to a swift conclusion. While Energy fell in the rankings, Materials and Real Estate both climbed higher. Industrials and Financials have been laggards of late, but remain in a leadership position overall. Our industry group heat map shows mid-caps leading, with large-caps improving and small-caps deteriorating.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
There was plenty of positive economic data this week, but the bounce in residential construction activity really caught my eye. This tends to be a leading indicator for the economy overall. Housing starts were particularly strong in March, surging to their highest level since 2006. This probably isn’t too much of a surprise for those who have been watching Lumber build on last year’s gains and move to new all-time highs this week. Not that I was trying to do channel checks during my break last week, but I did notice plenty of trucks on the road headed North and loaded with lumber and logs as I drove through Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama (though they are not yet to the point of traveling in convoys surrounded by a security detail).
by Peter
This is the video recording of the April 15th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
04/15/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
We were cooped up all winter, so we decided to head south.
As soon as the kids got out of school for spring break, we loaded up the car, left Milwaukee, and headed for the Gulf of Mexico.
It was a long trip — and I had plenty of time to think along the way. In a world of momentum and trends, we want to remember where we’re coming from so we can better understand where we’re going.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This morning I had the opportunity to catch up with my colleague Oliver Renick on the TD Ameritrade Network. I always enjoy our chats and today was no exception as we discussed the current overall market from a sentiment, breadth and trend perspective.