How much longer is this market going to be a mess?
Probably longer than you want it to be.
Why do you think defensive assets stopped going down 5-6 months ago? [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
How much longer is this market going to be a mess?
Probably longer than you want it to be.
Why do you think defensive assets stopped going down 5-6 months ago? [Read more…]
by JC
It’s Saturday Morning Chartoons time.
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
It’s been a while since we checked in on the US breadth scene, and for a good reason… there’s really nothing new to say.
Some US stocks are going up, but most are not.
Instead, our focus has been on expanding global breadth. We believe the burgeoning participation in international markets is constructive for US markets, specifically for cyclical areas.
But are we beginning to see any signs of breadth expansion domestically?
In today’s post, we’ll switch gears and turn our attention stateside to address participation among US stocks.
Let’s dive in!
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Industrial metals have been one of the strongest subgroups within the commodity complex over the trailing year.
The parabolic advance in Steel futures off last year’s lows is an excellent illustration of this.
But lately, we see more and more commodities shift toward sideways trends in the intermediate-term. And lots of them are doing so trapped beneath overhead supply.
A quick glance at charts like crude oil or copper tells this story well — the last four months have been a chop fest for most.
Despite an overall trendless market, we’ve seen pockets of strength from a diverse array of contracts. Steel isn’t the only one. In recent months, we’ve covered breakouts in Coffee, Sugar, Livestock — and just last week, Uranium, to name a few.
And, of course, we continue to see plenty of strength from base metals.
But some of the more recent data suggest we should approach these contracts with more caution.
Let’s dive in and examine a few charts presenting mixed signals from this economically sensitive commodity space. [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Despite government officials trying to explain it away, inflation is running at its highest levels in years or (in the case of producer prices) decades. For now, however, the bond market shows little evidence of concern. After pulling back from 1.75% to 1.15%, the yield on the 10-year T-Note has risen in recent weeks but remains below 1.40%. It has bumped up against that level but has not been able to get through it. German yields have moved higher recently and seem to be giving US yields a green light to break out. Resiliency from Financials even as yields were retreating in Q2 and Q3 also argue for an upside resolution here. The high P/E, speculative growth sectors of the market ran out of steam when yields moved higher earlier this year and they could be vulnerable again if yields make a sustained move to the upside from here.
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Thanks to everyone who participated in last week’s Mystery Chart.
We questioned whether this consolidation would resolve in the direction of the primary downtrend–in which case we would expect a break lower.
Or maybe buyers would step in and defend those former lows once again.
Despite the lack of bearish momentum readings, many of you wanted to sell on a break below support, citing the primary trend as a major deciding factor.
And that’s basically where our heads were, too, as it’s always easier to go with the trend.
So what are we selling? Or should I say… buying?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridg
Money really likes to flow where it’s treated the best… and as far as sectors and even most industry groups go, there simply isn’t much alpha out there at the moment.
In analyzing relative trends, we’re always aware of how the overall stock market is performing against defensive assets.
In today’s post, we’re going to check in on those sectors investors pile into when seeking safety as opposed to positioning for risk.
Utilities, Real Estate, and Staples… the “bond proxy” groups. Let’s dive in.
by Peter
This is the video recording of the September 9th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets.
09/09/21 2PM ET [Read more…]