This is the video recording of the May 19th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
05/19/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
This is the video recording of the May 19th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
05/19/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
“It isn’t even a bear market yet.”
I heard that from someone earlier this week. I also read it somewhere else earlier today.
I know what they mean, but the comment left me shaking my head anyway.
Many are reluctant to call a bear a bear until the pullback exceeds 20%. I wrote about the shortcomings with this approach a few weeks ago. But old habits die hard. For now, with the S&P 500 down “only” 18% from its January peak, this current period is still being labeled a correction.
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: The disconnect between what investors say and what they do continues to be overlooked by sentiment indicator tourists. While consumer sentiment (what they say) is near its lowest levels on record, household equity exposure (what they are doing) remains elevated. Moreover, many are trying to call peak pessimism (with no evidence that it has reversed) as a catalyst for a market bottom (with no evidence that the conditions for a sustainable rally are in place). Sentiment is a condition and that condition right now shows fear and concern continuing to build. Being contrary to a crowd that has not turned can lead to getting trampled.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Learn Volumes By Looking Beneath The Surface
We balance how investors say they feel with how they act. We can do the same with the market, balancing surface-level price action against what we see when we dig beneath the surface. This seems all the more important amid the crescendo in calls that the market has bottomed, is bottoming, or will soon bottom and in an environment when price swings are exaggerated. When we look beneath the market’s surface two things especially stand out. First, after Friday’s 13-to-1 up volume day failed to be followed by strength, today is poised to bring another 9-to-1 down volume day. Second, it is difficult to speak constructively about the market when more stocks are making new lows than new highs. That has been the case for 25 weeks in a row, which is the longest stretch since the Financial Crisis and a substantial push back to the claim that this has been just a normal market correction.
by JC
Below 4100 in the S&P500 is a problem. Those are the February lows.
By definition, the stock market is in a downtrend, making lower lows along with those lower highs that were already in place.
We can go much lower from here, a little lower from here or sideways for while.
It doesn’t make sense to own stocks in any of those 3 scenarios: [Read more…]
The team at All Star Charts lately has been talking about how a lot of stocks are displaying declining moving averages and share prices continue to trade below these downward-sloping moving averages. There is nothing bullish about that.
What it means is there is likely an avalanche of overhead supply in most areas of the stock market right now and therefore many rallies will be met with more and more people trying to unload their positions. This is a tough environment to be a bull in.
There is always money to be made in bear markets, but it requires a different skillset, steel nerves, and quick decisions. And whereas in bull markets, we love to put on bullish positions that have 6-9 months to play out so that we can let the underlying trends grind their way higher, in bear markets we like to take more shorter-termed positions because we need to take profits quicker. Bear market rallies are notorious for stopping out even the best of short positions.
With all this in mind, today’s trade is in one of those names that have been in a persistent downtrend, and is trading below significant moving averages. [Read more…]
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Copper is challenging the lower bounds of its range.
The AUD/JPY is attempting to reclaim former support.
And the S&P 500 is digging in at the AVWAP from its COVID lows.
These are some of the most important charts and levels in the market right now.
But there’s one chart that tops them all…
In our view, the US Dollar Index $DXY is the key to this market.
It’s currently struggling to resolve higher from a multi-year base after reaching its highest level since 2002.
The breakout could stick and lead to a sustained uptrend. Or, it might fail. Either way, the outcome will have wide-ranging impacts on risk assets.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats.
In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.”
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
By adding our technical analysis to the mix, the Young Aristocrat setups give you the opportunity to own the best of the market’s future blue-chip winners before they become must-own household names.
Often, the strongest performers in this universe and even the Aristocrats themselves pay relatively small dividends.
This is usually because the stock appreciation makes it tough to keep up with the payout — even for companies that consistently grow their yield in the double-digits!
For this reason, we don’t have a minimum threshold for the dividend. What we’re really doing here is creating a list of quality stocks based on their ability to persistently grow their shareholder return.
And maybe the best part? This list is not just designed for long-term investors. Any kind of investor or trader can use this list as it helps generate ideas across all time frames, even the short term.
Remember, some of the most important filters we use for this list are momentum, relative strength, and proximity to new highs.
So, let’s keep it real: These stocks are going up across all time horizons.