I Like Shorting Dr Pepper Snapple
Here’s a very simple shorting opportunity in a name that we all know well. This is a bear market, I’ve been very clear about that for months. The majority of stocks have already fallen more than 10-15% from their recent highs, and in some cases a lot more. But there are a few names that have held in there despite the major U.S. Stock Market indexes falling completely apart.
Today I want to focus on Dr Pepper Snapple $DPS, a stock that is putting in bearish momentum divergences on both weekly and daily timeframes. To me, this is a great recipe for a nice correction. If the risk vs reward is in favor of the bears [Read more…]
This Chart Suggests U.S. Interest Rates Are Heading Much Lower
Today I want to point to a chart that a really smart friend of mine has been sending me for months. He prefers to remain nameless, you know how these sell side guys roll, so we’ll just call him Mr. T. In this Chart, Mr. T has been telling me since the Fall that the Regional Banks vs REITs ratio is suggesting that U.S. Interest Rates are heading lower, specifically the U.S. 10-year yield.
On the top frame, we’re looking at the Regional Bank Index ETF $KRE over the REITs Index ETF $IYR. In this case, the numerator, Regional Banks, do relatively well when the market thinks rates will rise, while the denominator, REITs, do relatively well when the market thinks that rates [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording January 2016
Here is the video recording of the January 2016 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Ongoing Bear Markets in U.S. Equities Has Gotten Worse
- Where do we cover shorts in the stock market?
- What do we do with Apple and Amazon now?
- What are Utilities telling us?
- Is Gold a buy down here?
- Where do we buy Crude Oil?
- Treasury Bonds: What’s the trade?
Telecom Threatening A Structural Breakdown
From the desk of Tom Bruni @brunicharting
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Telecom Threatening A Structural Breakdown
When I read about the Telecom sector or speak with colleagues about it, I find many people often think of it as a collection of companies with strong balance sheets, great cash flows, and shareholder friendly actions like juicy dividends and share buybacks. While that may be true in many cases, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the sector can be utilized as a bond proxy to boost a portfolio’s yield. As we saw in recent years with sectors exposed to high-yield, and MLPs, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. In addition to that, simple math shows that Telecom hasn’t been correlated with bonds (TLT) at all over the past ten years, with the correlation being 0.29, 0.19, and 0.08 over the past one year, three years, and ten years, respectively.
If you had adopted the above philosophy, stuck this sector in your portfolio and hoped for the best, you’ve seen that [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] There’s A Huge Move Coming In The 10-year
In all markets, there are uptrends and there are downtrends. And then, of course, there are periods where there is no trend at all and it’s just a mess. Ultimately these messes find away to clean themselves up and a new beautiful trend is born. This is just the evolution of markets, that by definition trend. It’s our job to try and find them early in their growth, or, on the other hand, look to benefit from the downside of an aging and changing trend.
It’s the sideways markets with no trend that’ll get you. This is what some of us refer to as a chopfest, and is exactly what we’ve seen in the 10-year note yield over the past couple of [Read more…]
[Premium] Our Weekly Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- The Sell-off to Start The Year Is Perfectly Normal and Was To Be Expected
- What Do We Do With Apple Stock?
- Where Is The Best Risk vs Reward Now?
- My Favorite Emerging Market Short
- Where Do We Buy Crude Oil?
- Solar Energy Stocks Are What We’re Most Interested In
- What the Strength In Utilities Is Telling Us
Time To Fade The Natural Gas Rally?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @brunicharting
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Potentially Time To Fade The Natural Gas Rally
With Natural Gas futures up roughly 48% since the December lows, the urge to call a bottom in this asset class is quite strong. However, history tells us that the most vicious rallies occur during bear markets, which may suggest that current levels offer a decent risk/reward on the short side.
Before taking a look at price, it’s important to be aware of current sentiment and seasonality data within its proper historical context. In terms of sentiment, the recent rally has allowed a number of things to occur [Read more…]
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