We talk about a lot of different markets here and we use a lot of different information to come up with a thesis. We look at International Stock Markets, Interest Rates, Sector Rotation, Individual Stocks, Breadth Measurements, Currencies, Commodities and an endless supply of Intermarket Ratios. But today I want to talk about a breakout that we’ve been waiting for now for some time. [Read more…]
Announcing the Investopedia Technical Analysis Course!
I’ve been using Investopedia.com for as long as I can remember. Especially early in my career, whenever I had a question about the market or didn’t know what something meant, Investopedia was always there to help. Whether it was a simple definition or I just needed an explanation on something more complicated, this website been a reliable source of educational material throughout my many years in this business.
Today, I am excited to announce that I have partnered up with the amazing people at Investopedia to launch their first ever Technical Analysis Course! It is such an honor for me to be a part of this incredible company. It’s like my career has come full circle. This is so cool! You can go through all of the videos and supplemental information at your own pace. That’s the best part!
This course is for anyone (investors, students, retirees, traders) who wants to learn to recognize technical patterns and transform them into actionable trading plans. There is no prior investing knowledge required. After this course, you’ll be able to: [Read more…]
Useless Statistics vs a Weight-of-the-Evidence Approach
You guys have spoken. It is clear how little value you’re getting from the data miners.
I’m really lucky that I get to speak with investors all over the world on a daily basis. Some are Technicians just like me, but most are not. You guys are Financial Advisors, Traders at Hedge Funds & Mutual Funds, Portfolio Managers and Family Offices. You’re in the business of making money in the market. A lot of you aren’t even professionals but still fall in that same category of trying to profit in the market.
I’ve learned to be a good listener. Your ears will never get you in trouble. You guys email me and ask me questions. I ask questions right back. I’m winning too in this deal, remember? It’s a two-way street. In a lot of cases, you guys are much smarter than I am. Members of Allstarcharts include Traders swinging serious money and representatives from pretty much all of the biggest Broker Dealers on the planet. We’re not penny stock promoters lying to young kids about becoming millionaires so we can travel and party with pretty girls. If you’re reading this it’s because you know that those kinds of people are completely full of shit.
Readers of Allstarcharts know this isn’t easy. You guys are smart enough not to get sucked into these penny stock scams or bull shit “indicator” salesman making ridiculous claims. But I’ve also noticed that you guys are over the data mining too. It clearly isn’t helping you and in fact, in many cases has become a distraction. I get it. And I totally agree with you! [Read more…]
Chart Of The Week: U.S. Stocks vs U.S. Bonds
Are stocks in the 9th year of a bull market? No. Not even close. I would argue we might even be in the first year. You can see some of my list of reasons outlined here in Modern Trader Magazine earlier this year. Another major component of what I consider to be a structural bull market is a relative outperformance compared with other assets. When we’re looking at U.S. stocks, I think the obvious comparison is vs U.S. Treasury Bonds.
Today we’re taking a look at the S&P500 ETF $SPY vs the U.S. Treasury Bonds ETF $TLT. The comparison is very simple: Stocks or Bonds? One argument I can make why we’re not even through the first year of this structural bull market is because we have gone absolutely no where since 2007 relative to Treasuries. This has been a dead money trade for a decade. Late last year the ratio did break out to new highs, signaling to us that this was the beginning of a new move higher after 10 years of consolidation since that historic top in 2007, not the end: [Read more…]
The Best 75 Minutes You Can Spend
There are no short cuts guys. There is no magic indicator that will tell you when to buy and sell stocks, or any other security out there, yes even Bitcoin. The best way to see what’s happening in the market and weigh all the evidence, is to actually weigh all of the evidence! It’s not a secret formula. You just have to put in the work, or trust someone that does that work for you consistently and thoroughly.
I’m really lucky that Members of Allstarcharts come from all over the world just to see my homework. A lot of them come to me for trade ideas, but just as many come for my Global Macro context. Of course, most are here for both. I’ve heard from so many Members over the years, either over the phone, in person for beers or just through email conversations. The value they get from their membership depends on a lot of things. Many are traders at hedge funds, portfolio managers, financial advisors and family offices. Some Members are retired investors or in many cases younger investors first getting into the business. See what Premium Members are saying about their experience.
Every month I host a Live Video Conference Call that is then archived to be viewed at any time. All the Conference Calls going back years are still there to go back and review. I encourage all Members to do that in order to see the evolution of a thesis. This goes for U.S. and International Stocks, Interest Rates, Gold, Crude Oil, and a long list of other assets (see Chartbook here). [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2017
I have been unapologetically bullish of stocks, not just in the U.S. but all over the world. The data that continues to come in, not only confirms everything we’ve been seeing, but actually suggests that an even more bullish approach moving forward is warranted. The sector rotation in US Stocks and leadership from International Markets is pointing to not just some short-term gains, but in fact, much higher prices coming across the board. In this call we take a look at the extreme positioning in some very important markets like Gold, US Dollars, Euro and US Treasury Bonds. I think the extremes in sentiment could spark a major unwind as we head into the 4th quarter. [Read more…]
Season 1 – Ep 6 – Jonathan Krinsky, Technician & Managing Director At MKM Partners
Jonathan Krinsky is a great compliment to the guests we have already had on Technical Analysis Radio. His Intermarket and top/down approach is very well rounded and consistent. In this podcast episode, Jonathan explains how his mentor Phil Roth helped point him in the right direction earlier in his career, particularly during the 2008 Financial crisis. In this discussion we talk about US and Global Stocks, Interest Rates, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil. Sectors mentioned include Financials, Technology, Biotechnology and Energy. I really enjoyed this conversation! [Read more…]
[Premium] Breakdown of All 30 Components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
One of the best ways to get a gauge of the strength or weakness in the U.S. Stock Market is to go through all of the stocks in the indexes. Every week I rip through all 500 stocks in the S&P500 on both weekly and daily timeframes. This works well for 2 reasons: 1) it gives me a great idea of how the entire market looks collectively, but it also allows me to find individual risk vs reward opportunities throughout the market. It works great for both.
For people who simply don’t have the time, or interest, to get that deep into market analysis, I find the Dow 30 review to be really helpful. If you take a look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 100 years and overlay it with the S&P500, they look pretty much the same. So if their correlations are that high, then going through the Dow 30 components on both weekly and daily timeframes is a much more efficient use of time.
First of all, these are 30 of the most important stocks in America, so that by definition makes them 30 of the most important in the world. Second, we want to take a weight-of-the-evidence approach here and ask ourselves, Are there more good ones or bad ones?
Today I wanted to walk you through the process so you can see where I’m coming from as I lay out my conclusions. [Read more…]
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