This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
International Hall Of Famers (10-15-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more — but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the big US names on our original Hall Of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive in and take a look at what some of the largest stocks around the world are doing.
Confirmation From Dr. Copper
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Copper was a critical piece missing from the intermarket puzzle heading into the fourth quarter.
Just last week, copper was testing year-to-date lows and looking vulnerable for a downside break. Meanwhile, energy futures and interest rates were rising, and cyclical and value stocks were getting back in gear.
The mixed signals were impossible to ignore. It’s not likely that the recent breakouts in crude oil and the US 10-year yield would hold in an environment where copper is breaking down.
Dr. Copper is a great leading economic indicator and critical to the global growth narrative. Let’s see what it’s saying. [Read more…]
Polkadot’s Price Discovery
Polkadot has shown some impressive strength in the last week.
Now that prices are back to the upper end of this range, a definitive breakout is only another $10 away.
This has all the same characteristics Solana, Axie Infinity, and Cardano showed before they all surged.
Accumulation, building a base… now we just need to wait for the breakout.
Gold: Don’t Call It A Comeback!
Those angry little gold buggers are finally starting to put some points on the board.
The lack of participation in Gold since last Spring has been something to witness. Every commodity on earth has skyrocketed, except for gold and other precious metals.
My argument is that maybe it’s behaved that way because it’s not a commodity. Maybe it’s more of a currency, something I’ve always argued.
Right or wrong, call it whatever you want, it has done poorly since last summer of 2020.
And with the Dollar as strong as it’s been, Gold has really taken a beating.
But not lately….
Can we call it a comeback?
You see, with new highs in the US Dollar this month, Gold did NOT make new lows. That bullish divergence is the first sign of life we’ve seen out of this thing for a while.
Here we’re looking at the US Dollar (inverted) using the $UDN ETF to help visualize it. And below that is the price of Gold, NOT making lower lows: [Read more…]
[Options] My Favorite Strategies: Long Calls
(While on vacation until Oct 26th, I’m going to be sharing you some anecdotes on my favorite trading strategies: why I use them, when, and how I manage them once they are on.)
Here’s the thing about options trading: you can make it as complicated as your heart’s content. And there are plenty of incredibly smart practitioners out there who run amazingly complex strategies involving all kinds of volatility and statistical arbitrage.
They analyze 3D volatility surface graphs, use lesser understood greeks, and interpret things like “volatility smile” and dispersion.
If that works for you, great! I always say: if it works, do more of it!
But another beautiful thing about options trading is that there are many different ways to pull profits out of the market, and most of them aren’t as complicated as they may sound — even if the strategies have exotic sounding names like “iron condor” or “broken-wing butterfly.”
And my absolute favorite options strategy isn’t even really a strategy at all — it’s simply buying long calls when I’m bullish! [Read more…]
2 to 100 Club (10-13-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.
As many of you know, something we’ve been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It’s really been working for us!
One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you’ll notice we’re only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online Retail, Solar, etc.
Then, like any good technician, we filter the list down to those that are closest to new highs. This allows the cream of these strong groups to rise to the top and helps streamline our mission to identify technical breakouts in the top-performing stocks.
The Bond Market Reaches for Risk
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We’re beginning to see signs that risk-on behavior is re-entering the market.
Commodities are ripping in the face of a rising dollar.
Cyclical stocks are back in gear as the S&P 500 High Beta ETF $SPHB posts higher highs and higher lows relative to its low-volatility alternative $SPLV.
Meanwhile, classic risk-appetite barometer AUD/JPY sliced through a critical level of former support-turned-resistance earlier this week.
All of these point to an increasing risk-on environment.
But what does the bond market have to say about investor positioning toward risk?
Let’s look at a couple credit spreads that speak to investors’ willingness to incur risk. [Read more…]
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