One of the things that often gets underrated is the power of simplicity. What’s wrong with only looking at price and focusing in only on what matters most? I get that you love your moving averages and candlesticks and all sorts of momentum indicators. But the most important indicator is still price. So that’s what we’re going to look at today using OHLC Bar Charts.
Correlations: Stocks Around The World vs NIFTY 50
I get asked all the time, “JC why should I care what’s happening in Finland or Canada if I’m just trying to make money in stocks here in India?”
This is certainly a valid question and one that I think we need to address here before moving any further. Let’s remember that this is a “market of stocks” and not just a “stock market”. In other words, while things like the NIFTY50 and the S&P500 are indexes and a good gauge for the health of the overall market, there are many individual components that make up these averages. Oftentimes, that gets lost in the shuffle.
To add to this thought, let’s also remember that “Stocks” as an asset class are represented by companies all over the world in many different countries. These countries’ stock market averages tend to move in sync. In other words, the S&P500 is not going up or down because of what is happening in America. It is going up despite what is happening in America and in a solid uptrend along with the rest of the world. I can make the exact same case for the NIFTY50 and stocks in India. They have not been rallying simply because of what is taking place within the borders of India. These stocks have been rallying as stocks all over the world have been rallying. [Read more…]
Three Historic Breakouts In The U.S. Stock Market Today
When you rip through 5000 charts a week you start to notice a few things. One thing that has caught my attention recently is the fact that there stocks just now breaking out of 20 year bases. These aren’t some irrelevant micro-cap companies either, these are stocks that are literally representing some of the most important industries in America. It’s hard to ignore these developments and I think it points to further strength in the U.S. Stock Market this year.
Stocks aren’t breaking down from major tops. We saw so much of that happening throughout 2007 that it became almost impossible not to be short equities in 2008. Today we are still seeing the exact opposite: breakouts from major bases, multi-decade bases in some cases. Today I’m going to point out 3 very important stocks that are just now coming out of historic consolidations. [Read more…]
Chart Summit 2018 Live Saturday January 27th – Register Now!
Chart Summit 2018 is finally here. We could not be more excited for this event after the unbelievable experience we had last year! In January of 2017, I called up a bunch of my smartest friends and put on the first ever 100% virtual conference on Technical Analysis, and it was FREE! We had over 10,000 attendees from over 100 different countries. The feedback I received immediately after the event was like nothing I had ever seen before. I couldn’t believe it.
If you missed last year’s event, you can still watch the videos of those presentations here and I highly encourage you to do so. We had traders like Peter Brandt, Brian Shannon and Joe Fahmy explaining their approach and best ideas. Top Wall Street Analysts like Ari Wald, Jonathan Krinsky and legend Gail Dudack showed the world how they look at markets and what sorts of things they were showing their buy side customers at the time.
This was an amazing event from an educational perspective, but also provided the audience with very actionable market commentary. This year, we are fully committed to bringing together a similar level of talent and expertise to see if we can even come close to the success we had a year ago.
Registration for this one of a kind event is Free and you can register here: [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording January 2018
This is the video recording of the January Conference Call. It’s our first of the year and I just want to reiterate that we want to forget everything we thought we knew last year and approach the current market environment with an open mind. To stay true to ourselves, we want to start from the top and work our way all the way down, responsibly weighing all of the evidence along the way. Beginning with a global macro perspective, we’ll then break things down to the Indexes, then the Sectors & Industry Groups and finish with the stock ideas themselves.
I think there is an overwhelming theme of strength in natural resources, particularly metals and energy. The would be a consistent with a weaker U.S. Dollar and higher Interest Rate environment. Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording January 2018
This is the recording from the first ever Live Conference Call for Members of the New Allstarcharts India! After spending 10 days in one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been to, we’re diving deep into the stock market itself. Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY and SENSEX Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
[India Chart Of The Week] NIFTY50 vs S&P500 Ratio Approaching Critical Apex
When an asset class is in a bull market, it not only goes up in value, but it also outperforms other asset classes. So it’s not just about the absolute performance, but about the relative performance as well. When stocks are going up, they’ll outperform things Bonds or Gold, for example. In emerging stock markets, it’s no different. When stocks in India are outperforming US Stocks, that is when I consider the bull market to be in full stride.
Today I want to point to an important development in the NIFTY50 relative the S&P500. This is how we can see if stocks in India are in a real uptrend, or just a market rising with the tide. [Read more…]
About That Uptrend In Small-caps
All-time highs across the board in Small-caps these days. Some are in shock. I personally just don’t understand why stocks that are in uptrends going up is anything outside of perfectly normal? I would argue that any other result is what we should consider unusual. If the market teaches us one thing is that trends are much more likely to continue than to completely reverse.
In September I put out a post about small-caps breaking out of year long bases. If you recall, at the time, the sentiment around the market was about how high stocks were and how they could not go much further. My argument at that point was the exact opposite. Small-cap stocks had done nothing for an entire year. To suggest the stock market was too stretched was irresponsible, in my opinion. Not only did we want to be long stocks, we wanted to be “very aggressively long” equities. [Read more…]
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