Following Up On That March Island Reversal
Remember that Bearish Island Reversal in the Nasdaq in March? I wrote a whole note about it pointing out that it was now going to be a problem. The fact that the Nasdaq broke out to new all-time highs, and then failed hard, was evidence of an overwhelming amount of supply for stocks relative to demand.
I mentioned at the time that it was most likely going to resolve through time, rather than through a severe downside correction in price. The reason was that this was just a brief 2-month breakout and not a massive top or reversal. I said that the sooner we can get through that 7000 level, the stronger the market we’re in from an intermediate-term perspective. Not only was this a risk management tool, but also as a source of information: strength or weakness in this case.
Fast forward just 10 weeks later and we’re now breaking out above key resistance once again. [Read more…]
These Are The Trends In U.S. Stock Market Indexes
It’s very easy to get caught up in the day to day noise of the market, especially if you’re allowing toxic media content into your life. It’s virtually impossible for us to completely ignore it all, although I do try my best. So, at the very least, we want to be aware of what type of content we’re consuming and the conflicts of interest that are driving it. But another, and much easier way to avoid getting lost is simply by taking a step back. Monthly charts allow us to see the forest through the trees and is one of the most valuable parts of my entire process.
Even if you’re a day trader or short-term swing trader, I think it’s a huge advantage to understand the direction of the underlying trends. For me, who specifically looks out weeks and months, trying to make money this quarter, my monthly candlestick chart review is essential. I can’t begin to tell you how much this has helped me avoid blindly calling tops or bottom fishing in never ending downtrends. It most certainly helps us err in the direction of the underlying trends which, of course, increases our probabilities of success. [Read more…]
Bloomberg Interview: Live From India’s Traders Carnival
I’m having a great time here in Mumbai at the 7th annual Traders Carnival. I had the opportunity to sit down with Navneet SalujaDsouza from Bloomberg Quint to discuss my process and approach to markets.
Here is the video in full:
Bloomberg Interview: Live From India’s Traders Carnival
I’m having a great time here in Mumbai at the 7th annual Traders Carnival. I had the opportunity to sit down with Navneet SalujaDsouza from Bloomberg Quint to discuss my process and approach to markets.
Here is the video in full:
Managing Risk: Entry & Exit Points
Everyone always wants to talk about how high the stock they just bought is going, or how much money they’re going to make on a new position. “JC I think Apple goes to a Trillion Dollar Market Cap!” or “JC Bitcoin is going to $100,000!”. These are things I hear frequently, or at least some sort of variation of these comments.
This is perfectly normal behavior. We should not be afraid of it. But more importantly, I think we need to be aware of the implications of these feelings. The thing is, once we are already in a position, our emotions get involved. When our stress levels rise, we act emotionally, rather than logically. This is how we’re hard-wired. It would be abnormal for us not to think this way. But again, the important thing is to be conscious of it and not let it dictate our actions.
Managing Risk: Entry & Exit Points
Everyone always wants to talk about how high the stock they just bought is going, or how much money they’re going to make on a new position. “JC I think Apple goes to a Trillion Dollar Market Cap!” or “JC Bitcoin is going to $100,000!”. These are things I hear frequently, or at least some sort of variation of these comments.
This is perfectly normal behavior. We should not be afraid of it. But more importantly, I think we need to be aware of the implications of these feelings. The thing is, once we are already in a position, our emotions get involved. When our stress levels rise, we act emotionally, rather than logically. This is how we’re hard-wired. It would be abnormal for us not to think this way. But again, the important thing is to be conscious of it and not let it dictate our actions.
I’m Coming To Mumbai This Week
This is such a treat for me. I get to go to India to talk about Technical Analysis with hundreds of really smart and eager to learn investors from all over the country. The biggest investor conference of the year starts on May 24th and I will be the first presentation of the event. The 7th annual Traders Carnival will be Asia’s largest 3 day residential conference and I could not be more excited to participate.
I was lucky enough to visit India for the first time this January. I was blown away by the experience. We had about 200 people at an event at Bloomberg in Mumbai where I was the keynote speaker. The enthusiasm for Technical Analysis was amazing. I’ve never seen anything like it. [Read more…]
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