We adjusted our international equity exposure to stay in harmony with global leadership and are putting some money to work domestically following the late-July breadth thrust.
[PLUS] August Playbook: Trends, Opportunities, Risks
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes
Key Takeaway:
- Sustained market strength tends to be quiet.
- Noisy price swings can obscure underlying downtrends.
- Bulls holding serve on rally but hardly pressing an advantage.
The price moves in this environment have been impressive in both directions. One-quarter of the stocks in the NASDAQ are more than 50% above their 52-week lows, but more than 40% are still 50% or more below their 52-week highs.
Last week, for the first time since early April, more stocks on the NASDAQ made new highs than new lows. That ended the consecutive streak of days with new lows > new highs at 83. This was more than two weeks longer than the previous record stretch (which ended in December 2008 – prior to financial crisis lows). Like many of the stocks that make up the index, the NASDAQ Composite is well off its lows. But it is still more than 12% below where it was the last time new highs exceeded new lows.
The noise of these price swings can obstruct an underlying (and more significant) reality. The longer-term trends remain lower. This bear market has largely matched what many investors have become accustomed to in terms of the duration of a down-turn in the post-Financial Crisis era. It is true that there are now more hopeful signs of a sustainable turn now than there were in March or May. We’ve seen a surge in upside volume and two weeks ago got our first breadth thrusts (based on a spike in 20-day new highs on the S&P 500), but the risk environment remains challenging. Our internal clocks may want to find an end to the bear market, but the price action does not support that conclusion.
[PLUS] Weekly Market Perspectives – Burden Of Proof Is On The Bulls
We are still waiting for evidence that the bear market in equities has run its course, and a new bull market is being reborn. We have seen the short-term risk environment improve slightly over the last few weeks (2/5 criteria triggered), and the overall environment is beginning to lean more toward opportunity than risk. However, the burden of proof is on the bulls to show evidence of a sustainable move higher.
[PLUS] August Weight of the Evidence Dashboard: A Breadth Thrust, But . . .
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
We got a breadth thrust this week as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making new 20-day highs edged above 55% on Thursday. This might not be the most well-known of the various breadth thrusts, but it’s the one I lean on most heavily. It’s part of our bull market re-birth checklist and watched by market pros. It’s not an all clear signal or a guarantee that the market will not go down. The market stumbled after the July 2011 signal and the performance in the wake of the March 2002 signal was ugly. But overall, this tended to point to improving conditions and indicate that the market may more easily move up and to the right. I have reservations right now (we continue to see more new lows than new highs) and I believe much of the rally off the June lows has been built on a premise that will prove false. But the data are what they are. To quote Walter Deemer, “Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy.” Breadth thrusts signal strength and I don’t like to argue with strength.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
This is the video recording of the July 28, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
07/28/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Overlooked Cucumbers & Missed Opportunities
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
It’s not the first thing I do in the morning (a cup of coffee and some devotional time take precedence) but early each day, I am out in the garden. Hose in hand, I water what needs to be watered. I’m also observing – noticing weeds, identifying what needs to be propped up or redirected, and making a mental note of what is ripe and ready to be picked.
Right now, it’s cucumbers – a lot of them. I’m giving them away as fast as I can. But I still had to pickle a bunch this past weekend (Capital Preservation in investing parlance). They are almost hydra-like this time of year. Eat one and there are three more ready to be picked.
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22
- 23
- …
- 80
- Next Page »