This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Commodities Weekly: Will Green Metals Lead the Way?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
The markets are a mess and have been a mess for months now.
Risk assets are under pressure as the USD strengthens and overhead supply thwarts potential rallies.
Yet, we continue to find pockets of strength in both stocks and commodities.
We’ve said it time and time again during the past several months…the markets are a bifurcated, choppy mess!
But during these challenging periods, identifying areas that are bucking the trend can prove valuable over intermediate- and longer-term timeframes.
Basically, the assets holding up the best or even breaking out while the broader market is trendless are likely to be your future leaders.
Let’s take a look at one area of the market doing just that! [Read more…]
This Is Not What a “Market Top” Looks Like
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
You’re probably sick of hearing this but it’s important! Even with the recent bout of volatility, new lows have been non-existent across most of the major averages in the US.
To be fair, many of our Intermarket relationships are still flashing red, suggesting continued headwinds for risk assets.
Earlier this week we saw significant selling pressure in equity markets both domestically and abroad. Conditions are as ripe as they’ve been in more than a year for the bears.
So, did we finally get that “fall day,” as our fellow Technician and friend Mike Hurley likes to call it?
The simple answer is no…
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Monday and rebounded with a 1.5% gain on Tuesday. These were the 31st and 32nd daily moves of 1% or more so far in 2021. At this point last year, we had experienced 72 daily swings of 1% or more, the most we had seen by July in at least two decades. While 2021 has been a drop off from last year’s torrid pace, it’s nothing compared to what was seen in 2017 (which had just 4 moves of 1% in either direction at this point, and finished the year with just 8). What is amazing about 2021 is how closely it has matched the median experience of the past 20+ years. So far this has been a year that is remarkable in its unremarkableness.
What’s Driving the Electric Revolution?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
A revolution in energy is upon us.
Some like to call it the green revolution or the transition to renewable and alternative energy. How you want to label it isn’t what matters.
All we care about is that the landscape for energy and how we use it is changing dramatically.
As the world quickly changes and the demand for energy expands, how we generate and utilize it, as well as the natural resources we rely upon to do so – will inevitably change, and adapt to this new environment.
Of course, we’ll continue to burn coal, crude oil, and natural gas for the foreseeable future. But there are other pockets of strength arising in areas that could very well be secular growth trends for decades into the future.
We’re always looking to identify these new arenas of growth. Here’s the way we see it…
With strong prospects for global growth and economic expansion in the cards, additional energy sources will need to be created so that supply can meet the growing demand being placed on an already antiquated and stressed infrastructure.
As usual, the markets are one step ahead and appear to have already sniffed out the necessity for alternative energy sources.
Let’s look at a couple of charts that both highlight the changing backdrop for Energy consumption and offer opportunities to express a bullish thesis on these emerging trends.
CARZ, KARS, And More Cars!
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
I’ve personally been in the market for a new or used car for a few months now, and let’s just say it hasn’t been easy. The entire supply chain has been disrupted, and the market has been unable to keep up with demand.
I finally made the decision to stop my search until the supply crunch for semiconductors and other critical inputs alleviates. I could be waiting a while though, as this has already been going on for about a year. Thankfully, I live on an island that is only 8 square miles, so my bike or feet can take me wherever I need to go in the meantime.
According to a recent article from the Wall Street Journal:
Prices for both new and used cars are high. The surge is driven in part by the global chip shortage, which is straining new-car inventories. This has led more consumers to shop the preowned market, increasing demand for used cars and eroding dealer inventories.
A little over a month ago we published a post discussing the strength in the Nasdaq Global Auto ETF $CARZ. The index is designed to track the performance of the largest companies in the automobile manufacturing industry. These stocks had been performing quite well as it is a seller’s market out there, but have corrected over the last few months.
We even discussed the relative strength we’re seeing from the new online auto retailer Carvana $CVNA in yesterday’s 2 to 100 Club Report.
But today, we’re going to reveal last week’s Mystery Chart and focus our attention less on the traditional automakers and more on the burgeoning growth industry of autonomous and electric vehicles as this is where the strength has been for the automotive industry of late. Let’s drive right in. Get it…?
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Risk Breaks At Camp
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
It was a voicemail that any parent would dread…
Hello, this is the nurse from camp. Your son had an accident. He’s fine but I need to talk to you…
I quickly called back to get the details. I was on the road just a few minutes later, making a nighttime trip to a rural emergency room 100 miles away. As it turns out, my son suffered a broken arm during a relatively run-of-the-mill game of chase that involved jumping across a small ditch and not quite sticking the landing. He was doing what we sent him to camp to do.
A couple of hours alone in the car gave me plenty of time to think about all types of risks and how they are unevenly distributed across both space and time. Accidents can really happen anywhere. Still, we have nurses at summer camps, not in our living rooms. Broken arms and other more minor injuries are more likely at the former than the later.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
This is the video recording of the July 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
07/22/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
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