This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Are Oil Refiners Next?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Commodities are off to another record year — and it’s only April!
Crude oil and friends are leading the charge as the energy-heavy CRB Index is up 34% year to date.
Oil ripped above 100 in February and has been in a corrective phase since. The energy complex remains red-hot though, with natural gas futures breaking to fresh 13-year highs this week.
While crude oil finds its footing, its derivatives — heating oil and gasoline, are coiling just beneath all-time highs and gearing up for some massive base breakouts.
We’re also seeing some bullish data points for the broader oil and gas industry as crack spreads are expanding and signaling a healthy demand for black gold. This bodes particularly well for oil refiners.
All of this price behavior is what we like to call rotation.
It’s an essential characteristic of any real bull market, and it’s exactly what we’re seeing from commodities these days.
In fact, we’re even seeing constructive rotation within commodity subgroups, like the developments we just described in energy markets.
Let’s dive in and talk about some areas in energy that we think are ready to catch some of this rotation next.
Young Aristocrats (April 2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats.
In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.”
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
By adding our technical analysis to the mix, the Young Aristocrat setups give you the opportunity to own the best of the market’s future blue-chip winners before they become must-own household names.
Oftentimes, the strongest performers in this universe and even the Aristocrats themselves pay relatively small dividends.
This is usually because the stock appreciation makes it tough to keep up with the payout — even for companies that consistently grow their yield in the double-digits!
For this reason, we don’t have a minimum threshold for the dividend. What we’re really doing here is creating a list of quality stocks based on their ability to persistently grow their shareholder return.
And maybe the best part? This list is not just designed for long-term investors. Any kind of investor or trader can use this list as it helps generate ideas across all timeframes, even the short term.
Remember, some of the most important filters we use for this list are momentum, relative strength, and proximity to new highs.
So, let’s keep it real: These stocks are going up across all time horizons.
International Hall of Famers (04-15-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
High Yield Slides Lower
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Treasury Bonds have collapsed in recent months as interest rates have rallied to their highest levels in years.
And it’s not just treasuries, the trend is lower for corporate bonds as well.
While fixed income markets have experienced steady selling pressure since 2021, downside volatility has accelerated in recent months. Following the worst Q1 returns in decades, bonds have continued to plunge to kick off the 2nd quarter.
The best way for us to take advantage of this is to keep finding clean setups to short.
Today, we will outline a couple of shorts in high-yield debt and discuss what a sustained downtrend for these bonds could mean for the broader market.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
This is the video recording of the April 14th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
04/14/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
[Premium] Details For April 2022 Mid-Month Conference Call
These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Monday April 18th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Here are the details for Monday night: [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Market Environments: Participation > Labels
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
It’s easy to fixate on percentages when discussing and labeling market moves, especially when those moves are to the downside.
The S&P 500 can be 9.99% below its peak and you’ll hear nothing but crickets. Cross the 10% threshold and it’s a Correction. Cross the 20% threshold and banner headlines announce a Bear Market.
There are plenty of problems with this approach. A market environment where the S&P 500 is down 9.9% from its peak is likely not materially different from one where the index is down 10.1%. The same can be said on either side of the bear market threshold. Problems go beyond these arbitrary, specific thresholds.
The questions it raises reflect its lack of utility for everyone except headline writers: Is a market that is on its way to, but has not yet achieved a 20% peak to trough decline, in a bear market? Or is it still a bull market? And what happens after it enters bear market territory but nudges higher so that the peak to trough decline is now less than the 20% threshold? Is this still a bear market?
Pundits can wrestle with these questions. Historians can come in after the fact and put dates on market cycles (in the same way dates are put on economic cycles) after peaks and troughs are clearly established. Yet when trying to identify and operate within a market environment in real time, we don’t have those luxuries.
So how can we proceed?
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