This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Commodities Are Set Up To Play
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Energy stocks refuse to lose.
We can’t deny the relative strength of the energy space, whether we’re talking about stocks or commodities. But it’s been equities over the raw materials for months now.
It doesn’t look like that will change any time soon. However, I doubt energy contracts will be left behind.
International Hall of Famers (10-28-2022)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.
A Market of Stocks > A Stock Market
The Chart: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% on Wednesday, despite a majority of the stocks in the index advancing on the day. Thursday was similar, with the index falling 0.6% but again more stocks were up than down.
By The Numbers: Going back to 1998, there have been 276 single day instances of the index declining on days when more stocks were up than down. That is less than 5% of the time. We’ve seen it for two days in a row only 25 times. 2022 is the first year since 2017 that we have had two in a row more than once in a single year. We’ve only seen three for three (three consecutive index-level declines accompanied by more stocks rising than falling) three times since 1998, with the most recent coming more than twenty years ago.
Why It Matters: Cap-weighted indexes are heavily influenced by the direction of the largest components. But rallies are stronger when more stocks are rising than falling, when more stocks are making new highs than new lows. There is plenty of work still to be done with respect to highs and lows. This week a few large stocks got smaller and a bunch of small stocks got larger. When looking at the market of stocks, that counts as welcome progress.
When to Change Speeds
How great it is that we can change our minds and take decisive action immediately?
As traders in the financial markets, if our spidey senses detect that something is amiss or conditions have changed, we can often liquidate our positions and head safely into cash with just a few keystrokes on our computer. Depending on the size of our positions, we can be completely in cash within minutes, maybe even seconds!
You can’t do that with Real Estate.
You certainly can’t do that with Private Equity investments.
You definitely can’t do that with a small business.
All of those investments are fine for their own reasons. But they don’t offer us the opportunity to immediately exit if we change our minds.
Of course, just because we can change our minds on a dime doesn’t mean we always should. If we’re wishy-washy and trading without a plan, it becomes incredibly easy to overtrade and drive our commission bills and nerves through the roof. While this might make us popular at our broker’s office, our accountants will unlikely be pleased. [Read more…]
Bear Markets are a Choice
The Riskiest Bonds Look Best
From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley
Bonds have stopped falling across the board!
That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind this week’s near-term strength.
Right now, we’re looking at just a few days of bullish price action. And where do we define our risk?
We have to know where we’re right and where we’re wrong before we get involved in any investment.
Thankfully, high-yield bonds answer this all-important question.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
This is the video recording of the October 27th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
10/27/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
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