From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The market hit the breaks yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Powell is to speak again today, which could make for sloppy trading.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The market hit the breaks yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Powell is to speak again today, which could make for sloppy trading.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We held our March Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
Dollar and rates were big themes last year – rising in tandem – and continue to be as we head into March.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise as the next chart reveals the crux of the story…
Check it out!
One of the joys AND the frustrations of creating trading strategies is that there is no destination.
You don’t arrive at an endpoint.
There is no perfect strategy that will work forever and ever, the end.
It doesn’t work like that.
In the best-case scenario, I create a system, strategy, or methodology (choose your favorite term), that works reasonably well in the current market environment. The PnL volatility is acceptable, the gains are worthwhile, and the effort required to maintain trading is in my wheelhouse.
Great.
And maybe I have a good run that lasts a couple of weeks or even months.
Then the markets change and the metrics worsen and are now no longer acceptable.
That’s in the best-case scenario. In the far more likely scenario (at least in my experience), it becomes apparent that I overlooked a potential risk, minimized what I thought would be my emotional reactions to certain risks, or hadn’t considered how labor and commission/slippage intensive it will be to attempt an approach to my PnL expectations.
It’s too much work, far more taxing on my mental well-being, and riskier than I imagined. All bad things are unsustainable.
I need to remind myself that whenever I’m feeling good about where I’m at with a certain strategy, I should enjoy it while I can. But never forget that the work never ends.
There will be more tweaks needed. There will be unexpected tests.
And even if I have a good run with a strategy, there’s always a new strategy, perhaps in a new product or different timeframe, that is worth an exploration. And so it must be.
If we, and our systems, don’t adapt, we won’t survive.
Find joy in the process of constant iteration. That is what will sustain me, and likely you as well.
Trade ’em Well,
Sean McLaughlin
Chief Options Strategist
All Star Charts, Technical Analysis Research
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
What year is it?
Is it 2023 or 2022? Because it’s starting to feel like last year all over again…
No, Will Smith hasn’t slapped anyone (that I’m aware of). And I’m confident Bennifer 2.0 is going strong (solely based on Superbowl commercials).
But that’s not my concern. Here’s what does have my attention: the dollar and rates.
These were big themes last year – rising in tandem – and continue to be as we head into March.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise as the next chart reveals the crux of the story…
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
That was a very volatile day, as we had Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking.
And he’s speaking tomorrow too.
by JC
Last night was our Live Conference Call that I host at the beginning of each Month.
It gives us an opportunity to take a step back and identify the direction of primary trends.
This is helpful, because without understanding the environment we’re in, how could we possibly pick and choose which tools and strategies to incorporate?
This step often gets forgotten about by investors.
Many would rather just shove their strategy down the market’s throat whether it makes sense for that environment or not.
I find that foolish.
One chart that I thought told an important story last night was the Nasdaq Composite plotted with the New Highs – New Lows list.
It shows the bottoming “process” taking place beneath the surface: [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
So, the market had a little bit of a rug-pull yesterday.
I’d like $SPY to hold the 404 level, otherwise we run the risk down to 402.