The January CPI data came in a bit warmer than expected, and the market went every which way.
We also had a few Fed speakers today, so that added to the volatility.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The January CPI data came in a bit warmer than expected, and the market went every which way.
We also had a few Fed speakers today, so that added to the volatility.
by David
From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.
The market has been focused on the headline CPI and eager to declare the inflation battle won. The Fed is less concerned with changes that are fueled by outliers and focuses more on the central tendency and underlying trend in inflation. The median CPI in January posted its third largest 1-month change on record and the 12-month change climbed to a new high. So long peak inflation – we hardly knew you.
Why It Matters: With the market focused on the pullback in headline inflation, bond yields pulled back from their recent highs expectations of rate cuts later this year became more widespread. As it has become clear that the Fed is focused on still-persistent underlying inflation, the market has had to play catch-up. Fed funds futures now match the Fed’s expectations that rates will finish this year above 5% and today for the first time in 15 years we have Treasury yields with a 5-handle. While inflation expectations are on the rise and the underlying trend in yields remains higher, we are not seeing signs of macro-related stress. That keeps the path of least resistance for the Fed and bond yields higher.
Inside we take a Deeper Look at what continues to fuel inflation, how the market is getting on the same page as the Fed and what that all means for bonds going forward.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
Happy Valentine’s Day!
We have the CPI print at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the futures are full speed ahead as I write this.
by David
The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Longitude Capital’s Juliet Tammenoms Bakker.
Tammenoms-Bakker reported a purchase of $6 million in RxSight, Inc $RXST, where she serves as a director.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
$SPY broke above its eight-day moving average and trended higher pretty much all day.
It feels like the market wants to head higher tomorrow. But that could change on a dime with the CPI report.
by David
Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management is on our list today, as it just filed amended 13Gs for Roku Inc $ROKU and Cerus Corporation $CERS.
The asset manager reported a small increase in its ownership of ROKU, from 9.94% to 10.12%.
For its CERS position, it revealed a stake of 10.11%, up from the 8.94% previously reported.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
For today, we’ll watch to see how $SPY handles the eight-day moving average 409.
I think tomorrow’s CPI print will set the stage for the remainder of the month.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The market was range-bound today. $SPY traded between 405 and 408.
We have CPI on Tuesday, so that will help the market pick a direction.