This is JC’s Playbook to Profit In Q2: [Read more…]
One of the most important tools we have as technicians is the ability to measure momentum. Remember, buy side fund managers are obsessed with looking for stocks and assets showing momentum. They hate sitting in things that aren’t doing anything. Whether you’re a buy side fund manager or not, it’s important to think this way. Opportunity cost (where else you can invest that money) is important too. Looking for stocks with bullish momentum characteristics is something we want to do when markets are in an uptrend. When momentum starts to fade, it’s a heads up that price is likely to follow.
Today I want to focus particular attention on the breadth of momentum. We want to approach this as a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are many components that drive these indexes, sometime more than others depending on the index. We can focus on particular areas like energy or financials, or different market caps large or small. I also want to know how momentum in the entire market is doing: Are we seeing positive momentum characteristics or negative ones?
Here is the video recording of the March 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Bearish Momentum Divergences All Over
- Targets Hit All Over
- Leaders Are Failing
- Intermarket Signals Flash Warnings
- Sentiment Status
- Which Weak Names Do We Short?
- Commodities and Currencies
- Rates and Bond Trade
I’m sure by now you’ve had the time to digest the never ending headlines about an 8-year anniversary of a bull market for the S&P500. The problem with all of them is that the S&P500 has NOT been in a bull market for 8 years. In fact, there is a very strong argument to make that it could have just hit its one-year anniversary. Also, let’s remember the motivations of the people who are suggesting that the S&P500 is entering the 9th year of a single bull market. In a majority of cases they are purposely misleading you for personal gain.
It’s important to identify that the one single reason these people are using is actually a small technicality that they are irresponsibly pointing out and choosing to isolate as the sole basis for this conclusion. The single reason they are using to suggest that the S&P500 is entering its 9th year of a bull market is because in 2011 the S&P500 fell only 19.38% from peak to trough on a closing basis and not 20%. Again, let me stress that this is the ONLY data point they are using to claim we are in an 8-year bull market. And to make matters worse, their reasoning is because it fell 19.38% on a closing basis and not 20%? WHAT?? [Read more…]
Emerging markets have been a real laggard. While developed markets around the world have been making new highs, it’s just now that emerging markets are catching up. This week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund $EEM broke out to the highest level since the summer of 2015. This comes after 7 months of sideways consolidation: [Read more…]
It’s hard to ignore certain market moves that tend to be very rare. Bullish outside days that engulf the prior period are one of those. I think this is exactly what we saw this week in the AMEX Arline Index and it is something we want to respect. This is especially the case if you consider where this bullish reversal took place, just below important support. [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This week I laid out a list of bullish characteristics for stocks and my list of bearish characteristics in the current market environment. The reason for this exercise is to weigh the evidence and see which way the scale tilts. In this month’s call, we’ll dive deeper into the leading sectors and really identify the signs we’ll be watching for to signal further deterioration in stocks, not just in the U.S. but globally.
We have a lot to discuss! It will be held on Tuesday March 21st at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- A List of Bullish Characteristics for Stocks
- A List of Bearish Characteristics for Stocks
- Weight-of-the-evidence Conclusions on stocks worldwide
- Where In Healthcare Do We Want To Be?
- The Chip Stocks We Want To Own Today
- My Favorite Trade In Commodities
- How To Profit From Higher Stock Prices In India
- Interest Rates Are Not In A Downtrend
Remember, it’s not about being right, it’s about making money. Is it nice to be right? Of course. But it’s even nicer to be profitable. In order to do so, we focus more attention on figuring out where we’re wrong rather than allocating time and resources to fascinating about potential profits. If you want to be on my team, we’re going to play defense. So when we set specific parameters to be long against, we stay disciplined and move on to other opportunities when need be. If you use stop losses, it’s about executing them and then looking elsewhere. If your options expire worthless, just know you limited your loss to the premium you paid. The priority is always on the risk management, not on dreaming about future profits. I encourage everyone to read this post from last year: Knowing Where To Get Out Before Getting In
In today’s market environment I think it’s even more important to reiterate this point. Last week I mentioned that if we started to see cracks in certain levels for specific assets, then a more cautious stance is appropriate for stocks. Well, over the last few days, we’ve started to see that deterioration in Small-caps, Mid-caps, Micro-caps and Transportation Stocks. To add to this, the Energy stocks I discussed last week have resolved lower with a fall in Crude Oil prices. So we wanted to see each of these indexes hold above the levels we discussed and we wanted to see energy stocks resolve higher with Crude Oil making a run to $60 in order to reiterate a bullish stance. But none of those things happened. So now what? [Read more…]
Intermarket Analysis is a fantastic tool that is available to us as technicians regardless of our time horizon. Certain gauges of risk appetite, or risk aversion, can be seen simultaneously throughout various asset classes. We use these correlations as confirmations or divergences from data we’re getting elsewhere. Today I want to focus on the direction of the U.S. Interest Rate Market and compare it to the data we’re getting from Regional Bank Stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts. The relationship between Banks and REITs is similar to the tug of war going on between investors in the Bond Market. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- London FTSE 100 At New All-Time Highs Is Not Bearish
- European Stocks Breaking Out All Over The Place
- Technology And Financials Continue To Lead
- What Happened in Cocoa This Week Is Important
- The Higher Interest Rates Trade
- Why Google, Facebook and Apple Are Important To Watch Here
- Homebuilders Are Leading Consumer Discretionary
- Bitcoin > US Dollar & Euro Dilemma
Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. We try and identify the direction of the primary trend and invest accordingly. As Technicians we can apply our price-focused approach to any market, whether it’s stocks, commodities, currencies or even Bitcoin. If it is liquid and driven by the supply and demand dynamics in that particular market, then applying our methods of price analysis makes perfect sense and it works very well.
I jumped on board the Bitcoin train last year and added it to my Research Platform. Our clients really enjoy it, whether they are actively trading it or just interested in the product. To be honest, one of the biggest reasons why I decided to start including it in my weekly analysis is because I saw an opportunity to profit from this market. At the end of the day, isn’t that why all of us are looking at these charts in the first place, Bitcoin or otherwise? [Read more…]