This week I popped into Yahoo Finance to chat with their Technical Analyst Jared Bilkre.
We discussed the potential bottom in Bitcoin earlier this week. If Bitcoin is above 30,000 then a long position makes sense. But if it doesn't, I think there's probably good support at zero. Who knows how low it can go from there. But I won't be in it, so it's not my problem.
With the Nasdaq100 Equally-weighted Index flirting with a breakout near 110 and the ARKK ETF near 130, these are the critical levels we're watching.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell2000 Small-caps and Russell Micro-cap Indexes are all below overhead supply.
Messy for longer has been the pain trade and I think European Banks could be a big tell for the next direction of markets. We're watching that $20 level on $EUFN.
From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts and Steve Strazza @sstrazza
The Crypto space just experienced its worst day since the height of the Covid crash.
Bitcoin was down over 30% on an intraday basis, while Ethereum was almost cut in half.
We see this recent action aligning Crypto with what's taking place throughout the market. Bulls have had a more challenging time in recent months, and risk assets are coming under increasing pressure.
From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts and Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Alt Season is still very much alive and well.
In February, we did a deep dive into the wide world of crypto assets outside of Bitcoin. This turned out to be quite timely as many of these "alt-coins" have booked significant gains in the time since.
It's no longer just Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and some others. There are thousands of cryptocurrencies out there now!
As this new asset class continues to grow and blossom, we continue to pay close attention to the leadership within the Crypto complex.
The DeFi Revolution is upon us, at least according to Jim Bianco. For many years, I've looked up to Jim and the work he's been doing at Bianco Research and, in fact, he's the one who first inspired me to rip through hundreds of charts during my live presentations in order to get my points across. It took me about a decade to realize it, but it was him who I got that from.
Fast forward to 2021, and the Macro Technician who I've always admired has turned into one of the leading voices of what's taking place in DeFi, or "Decentralized Finance". Who better to talk to about what's going on than Jim himself? Ethereum, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Yield Farming, Metamask Wallets, Coinbase....the whole thing.
I've caught myself talking more and more about Cryptocurrencies since last Summer.
And there's a reason for that.
We like buying things that are going up in price, and selling (or not buying) the things going down.
That's really it.
You guys who have been around for a while remember me writing about, commenting and informing readers about Bitcoin back in 2016. I was talking about Crypto trading then even more than I am now. In fact, if you knew me back in 2014, I probably sent you some bitcoin as a gift. I was into doing that sort of thing back then.
BUT, in between 2018 and 2020 there wasn't really much to do in that space, so I stayed quiet and focused my efforts and attention elsewhere, like in Technology and Growth stocks for example.
More recently, we've been pounding the table about Bitcoin since last summer and then Ethereum more so throughout 2021.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The weight of the evidence still suggests it's prudent to be a buyer, not a seller, of risk assets for more meaningful time horizons.
Shorter-term, the market looks increasingly messy. For the first time in over a year, defensive assets are beginning to stabilize at logical levels of support, while stocks and major risk groups achieve our upside targets. Even a handful of some key Intermarket ratios are potentially diverging from the broader averages.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In recent weeks, we've seen some rotation back into Large and Mega-Caps, which has propelled the major indices to new highs, while SMIDs are still resiliently consolidating. While the list of negative data points has grown, it's still not close to anything that warrants concern.
The big news to end of the week is Ethereum completing this monster base and breaking out to new all-time highs.
For me, I don't care if we're talking about Crude Oil Futures, Apple or Tesla shares, Treasury Bond ETFs, Gold, Silver, Crypto....
It doesn't matter to me. It's just letters and math. All that other stuff isn't my problem.
The trade has been to be long ETHUSD if we're above those former highs from 2018. It was that simple. The risk was very well-defined and the potential reward was exponentially greater. That's what we look for. And so far, that strategy has worked well for us.
But now, while stocks are on holiday, Ethereum is really making a go of it: