When I go through charts of the most popular crypto currencies, it's hard to ignore the fact that we're seeing prices breaking out above downtrend lines from their respective highs. Go one by one, we're seeing it all over.
So what does that mean? Should we be buying all the crypto currencies right now?
This week I was in New York City working on some really cool things that I'll be announcing next quarter. It has been an incredible year and I think 2018 is going to somehow be even better! While I was in town, I swung by the Nasdaq Marketsite to chat with my friends over at BNN in Canada. They wanted me to talk about my thoughts on Bitcoin (of course), precious metals and U.S. equities.
It was a quick hit but I think I laid out some really interesting opportunities with very well defined risk parameters. As long as the potential reward is exponentially greater than the risk and the trend is on our side, I see little reason not to be all over these. There have been some very powerful trends in these markets over the past few years that I think continue into 2018.
It was Thanksgiving last week and the hot topic all over dinner tables throughout the world was about Bitcoin. Older relatives asking younger nieces and nephews to explain crypto-currencies was probably something pretty hilarious to watch by being a fly on the wall of many households.
In the spirit of the holidays, I thought I would post a couple of charts that I think are worth sharing with those family members and friends who are coming out of the woodwork asking about the not so new asset class. While I don't particularly care about the actual technology behind blockchain, I do think it's important to focus on the behavior of these markets. This is how we can responsibly calculate risk vs reward propositions. That's what this is about at the end of the day right? We're here to make money.
I think a lot of people are asking the wrong question. To me, it's not whether or not Bitcoin is in a bubble? It's whether or not the bubble in Bitcoin already popped?
This is Bitcoin week at Allstarcharts. I didn't really intend for this to happen but the phone calls have flooded in lately asking for more technical analysis on the digital currencies (See Bitcoin and Ethereum Posts). It's given me an opportunity to talk to a lot of smart people about things I know little about. They are fascinated by the fact that I analyze bitcoin by using simple math. For me it's something I do every day for things like Microsoft, Apple, Soybean Futures, Euro/Yen, Gold and pretty much anything else that has enough liquidity. I analyze supply and demand. That's it.
One of the great things about technical analysis is the ability to compare assets to one another so we can responsibly judge true value. If you bought some stock in March of 2009 and are thrilled by the fact that you made 30-40% on the investment since then, I'd say you failed. You could have almost bought anything else instead of what you decided to buy and made 200% or 300% during that time if not a lot more. On a relative basis you suck.
Bitcoin seems to be the hot topic these days. I send out a couple of bitcoin charts and the twitterati goes wild. It's a quick tell that there is certainly interest. It was not quite like this before Bitcoin was able to exceed the 2013 highs. But once prices got going and all-time highs became a regular thing, the cults start to follow.
Contrary to popular belief, the price of Bitcoin hasn't just gone straight up. The cryptocurrency, in fact, has gone through a series of very symmetrical and well-defined corrections along the way. Today we're taking a look at Bitcoin from multiple time horizons to get both long-term and short-term perspective using our Fibonacci tools.