[9/7: stop moved to 260. We're already #FreeRiding on this one. So whatever we sell the remaining position for is pure profit!]

Today's trade leans against a significant support level that we believe will hold. But because the stock is at such a delicate level where it could quickly collapse on us if the level doesn't hold, we're going to keep the play simple and cleanly define our risks.

A picture is worth a thousand words, so here's the chart of Caterpillar $CAT that's got our attention:

[9/28: updated our stop to $34]

I'm filing today's trade under the category of "Hard Trades." Not because it's particularly hard to execute or because it's a complicated multi-legged spread. It won't require an excessive amount of margin to get positioned nor is there any risk of unlimited losses.

It's hard because people might look at the trading action of the past few days and think that it's "gone too far" and "I should wait for a pullback."

And traders who think that way may be right.

But here's the thing: sometimes the best trades to get into are the best precisely because they are the "hardest" to pull the trigger on. And that's where our opportunity is. Those of us who fight through the conventional wisdom of average traders and get positioned ahead of the crowd will be lifted later on by those same traders who were "waiting for a pullback" and put an ever-rising bid underneath our stock that fuels our future gains.

Today's trade might be one of those setups.

[9/7: updated stop to 180. We're already #FreeRiding, so whatever we sell for is pure profit!]

It's time for the small caps to make a stand. The time is now. If they don't, it could be 'goodnight' for a long time.

JC posted earlier this week about the Russell 200 index and had this to say:

We’re back to a key level of interest for Small-caps on an absolute basis. And we’re back down to historic levels relative to Large-caps. The chart tells a very powerful story.

I’m a buyer down here.

If the Russell2000 is above last Summer’s lows, I will be long the $IWM ETF. I also think there will be plenty of opportunities this summer in small-cap stocks.

We talked about $IWM internally this morning and I suggested a good, levered way to play this thesis while honoring a nearby risk management level that will get us out of the trade without much pain if we're wrong.

But first, here's the chart of $IWM:

Full Disclosure: I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. As such, I'm excited about this upcoming NFL season. This is the year! Does this fact color my interest in today's trade? Maybe.

I get all my speculative juice in the financial markets. But there is a growing number of Americans who are jumping into online sports betting. The increases in both participation and dollars wagered is skyrocketing.

Today's trade is a bet on a continuation of this trend that will likely be driven by the next NFL season.

Options premiums have risen a little bit in recent days due to the fed, earnings, government data, and trader indecision, and [insert your favorite scary story].

Whatever the reason, this feels like a good time and opportunity to add some delta-neutral positions to my portfolio.

So let's get right to it.

[10/19/23 Update: moved stop to 125]

If stock markets are about to recover and start another leg higher back towards all-time highs, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Google (Alphabet) $GOOG doesn't at least retake last summer's highs north of $123 per share.

Call me crazy, but that's where my head's at.

Take a look at the coil that $GOOGL is working through right now:

The $GOOGL and $GOOG charts look the same. It's confusing and annoying that they have two shares classes (the "L" shares come with voting rights, the others do not).

The GOOG options have more open interest and volume, so that's where we will put on our trade.

As we're starting to get the latest round of earnings reports into the rear-view mirror, we're getting some clarity on the next crop of leaders for a potential move higher in the stock market.

Today's trade is on an emerging leader in the Defense sector that positions us very offensively for the next move up.

Let's get to it!

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

In an effort to provide some much-needed portfolio diversification, I'm adding a delta-neutral credit spread to the mix.

There aren't a whole lot of juicy premiums out there (thank you plummeting $VIX!), but there is an ETF in a sector that looks set up for some sideways digestion over the near term that should play nice with a short Strangle.

P.S. We do trades like this regularly. If you'd like to leverage Best-in-Class technical analysis into smarter directional options trades, try out All Star Options Risk Free! Or give us a call to learn more: 323-421-7991.

Finally, a setup I love that has earnings out of the way! There's light at the end of the tunnel. And no surprise I find this setup in a strong sector that wants to lead the market higher.

We're going to leverage some cheap options to position for a breakout to 52-week highs in this big cap name.

For a swing trader like me, earnings season is always tough. I often find myself in a situation where my favorite setups have a looming earnings release on the nearby horizon, introducing binary risks that make me uncomfortable.

And this season is no different. All of my favorite setups right now are fraught with earnings risk.

But I've found one opportunity where a pending earnings release may actually benefit us, allowing us to get positioned at attractive prices for a post-earnings run.

My man Steve Strazza's reaction to this trade idea: "Yes! Bios have got some catch-up to play!"

I concur.

Though, I think we've got some overhead resistance that may slow the roll heading into summer. But that's ok -- we can use that to our advantage with a calendar spread.