Do the hard thing.

Make it hurt.

Then do it again.

If these were the first three lines people read in a book about profitable trading, odds are many wouldn’t make it past the first page.

It’s natural for humans to want to avoid pain, to choose the easy path, and to put in the least amount of work for the maximum amount of output. Business schools call this “efficiency.”

And you can find plenty of examples in the real world where this is good, solid advice.

Trading is not one of those places.

The hard truth is that 80-90% of people who attempt trading in any capacity, frequency, or timeframe eventually end up net losers.

What a difference a week makes!

The powerful rally in stocks shows where the "pain trade" is (higher), and now I'm on the hunt for strong, leading stocks that will continue to turn the screws on the bears.

Let's get after 'em!

The "pain trade" is always higher.

I say that often. And its usually true.

And nothing turns the screws harder on bears than rallies in Tesla $TSLA.

So let's get after them with a "double or nothing" bet.

JC wanted to put this trade on yesterday (I think he did), but I wanted to wait until after the Fed announcement juuuuuust in case. You never know what shenanigans may take place on binary event risk days.

Well, my patience was rewarded. I am able to put the same delta-neutral credit spread on today at the same premiums that were offered yesterday, but now I don't have to sweat the fed.

Consumer Staples stocks, as a sector, have been displaying relatively high implied volatility in their options and so I wanted a name from this space that was stuck in a range.

The candidate that we all agreed on was Proctor & Gamble $PG:

The Junior Gold Miners appear to be temporarily stuck in the rocks. And with juicy options premiums to sell, we will take advantage of the range with a delta-neutral credit spread.

If/when the market can find it's footing, today's trade is in a name that I'd like to get aggressively bullish in for a long-term bet.

In the meantime, I'm not ready to be aggressive yet, but there is an opportunity for us to get paid to wait with a conservatively bullish bet that gives us room to be wrong.

Microsoft $MSFT announced earnings last night, and while the stock gapped higher at the open, it has spent most of the morning giving back much of those gains.

It looks to me that the prior trading range for $MSFT is acting as a powerful magnet. And the broader market weakness sure is helping things along in that regard.

At the end of the day, the market is telling us that the latest earnings report hasn't really changed any minds of Microsoft bulls or bears, and therefore, we're likely to remain stuck in this range until some new information reveals itself:

We options traders can benefit from this scenario.

I'm making the bet here the Bond Bears may have overshot here. And today's trading action feels to me like $TLT put in an actionable level to lean against for risk management purposes.

This is not a bet that the final bottom is in for bonds. Only that odds favor a bounce that might have some legs.

With this caveat out of the way, here's how I'm going to play it.

Well, every attempt I've made at wading back into the bull market pool has been swiftly met by a destabilizing splash made by a bear cannonballing off the diving board.

So, until further notice, I'm going to hang by the cabana sipping on my virgin daiquiri and waiting for calmer waters.

Meanwhile, I'm going to attempt to get paid while I wait by selling some delta-neutral premium in a (relatively) safer area of the market, as defined by a powerful bounce of recent lows in consumer staples.

With earnings in the biggest bank names mostly out of the way, the time is now for banks to put up or shut up.

And today's trade is in one of the "junkiest" banks out there we know -- Bank of America. Sorry, not sorry.

With a nearby risk management level, we're gonna make the put buyers pay for our bullish calls.

I don't like this market. It can't make up its mind. Things were starting to look promising last week, then Friday happened. And even today, intraday, we're seeing weird, indecisive trading action.

So I know I'm a broken record, but as long as this sideways slop continues, I'm looking to stay delta neutral and sell premium. And with earnings event risk all over the place, it is probably best to stay with liquid ETFs.

Today's trade is in the Oil Patch.

[12/4/23: moving stop to 550]

Today's trade is a bet on stocks making a run back towards all-time highs over the next 3-6 months. If you don't believe that's in the cards for stocks, then this trade isn't for you.

Unfortunately, its also a trade in a stock with a high trading price, so the margin requirement may perhaps be a bit onerous for some.

If you're in either camp, there's no shame in skipping this trade. It's not for everyone.

If I haven't scared you off yet, then keep reading...