No matter how you measure volatility, there is no ignoring the fact that the daily moves (both realized and expected) have shrunk dramatically in the cryptocurrency space, most notably in granddaddy Bitcoin $BTC.
Here's Strazza this morning on twitter:
Implied volatility can remain muted for as long as it wants to. It's not going to expand on my schedule. But at least when we're range bound and options prices are relatively cheap, we can position ourselves further out in time to take advantage of the next big move.
Today on the Morning Show, JC was talking about bitcoin and how if you want to underperform the next leg higher in crypto, then own bitcoin. But if you really want to get some juice for the next crypto rally, the crypto mining stocks are how to participate!
In particular, both JC and Strazza like Riot Platforms $RIOT and Marathon Digital Holdings $MARA.
And specifically, we all like what could have been a recent "oops" or fakeout-breakdown that may have just shaken out all the weak hands, clearing a path for the next move to new cycle highs:
With $MARA flirting with breaking back above $16.00 per share today and implied volatility in the options near yearly lows, it feels like high time to catch the whipsaw back to highs.
The famous duck on our television screens that interrupts nearly every commercial break during football season is setting us to pay us back for all those annoying "Aflac!" utterances.
New all-time highs + low volatility sets up my favorite trade.
Sector rotation continues to pump new blood into the bull market that's been running for over a year now (yes, over a year, hater). And as it does, we love getting into stocks that are late joiners. These stocks have seen some tremendous rips. Just look at the chart of Caterpillar ($CAT) as but one of numerous examples I can point to. That's what today's trade has the potential to do.
Our Commodities Analyst Ian Culley recently reported on several energy stocks we need to be paying attention to. And one of them just got earnings out of the way. Implied volatility priced into its options was already suspiciously low before the earnings report, so this sets up a great opportunity for a simple long calls play.
And we've got a big round number up ahead that would represent new all-time highs which should act as a magnet to help us out.
I’m continuing to travel throughout Southeast Asia — to eight different countries — with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.
So for the rest of the month of July and into early August, I’m going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.
As such, here’s the trade I’ll be putting on today:
As many of you know, Steve Strazza and I are touring South East Asia this month. We're hitting the homestretch of our trip, with about a week or so left. We're currently in Hong Kong and this city is beyond description. I don't even know where to begin. It's a cliche to say "you have to see it to believe it." But it is 100% true in this case.
As you can imagine, it's been a bit of a logistical challenge to keep up with the U.S. markets when we are on the other side of the globe. U.S. trading hours in Hong Kong are 9:30 pm to 4:00 am. Lucky for us, many of the positions we have on have been performing well. We've been positioned for a continued bull market and we're definitely being rewarded over the past few weeks.
We're currently positioned long in stocks like $AAPL, $MARA, $KBH, $GXO, $CARR, $VRRM, $ABNB, $IONQ, $DKNG, and more.
I mention this because as I'm looking at candidates for new long trades that we like, I am frustrated that most report earnings over the next 1-2 weeks. And as you know, I don't like positioning when a stock is so close to reporting earnings. I don't like the binary risk.
I’m traveling throughout Southeast Asia — to eight different countries — with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.
So for the rest of the month of July, I’m going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.
As such, here’s the trade I’ll be putting on today:
I’m traveling throughout Southeast Asia — to eight different countries — with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.
So for the rest of the month of July, I’m going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.
As such, here’s the setup for the trade I’ll be putting on today: