Analyzing Unusual Options Activity | The Flow Show https://t.co/XsSONHUcYV

— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 ( formerly @chicagosean) (@OptionsSean) February 5, 2024

Today on The Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza chatted about the current $VIX environment, the potential for sideways, volatile trading action, and our internally diverging views on the overall market (JC is getting more bearish, Strazza is still flying the Bull Flag, and I'm closer to Switzerland).

As we dug into it, Strazza floated a couple ideas in the Healthcare space that made sense to me once we fleshed it out.

We’re gonna keep this quick cuz I’m on the road doing errands.

I just got off the phone with JC, who called me in the car. His “spidey senses” are tingling and he thinks there might be a low-risk/high-reward opportunity to short the broader indexes here.

He likes it both as a standalone bearish bet and as a portfolio hedge against a bunch of longs that are working for us right now.

Today's trade is a "keep it stupid simple" kinda trade that might take a little intestinal fortitude if you do not enjoy buying stocks at all-time highs.

But in my experience, these are the types of stocks that continue to defy odds.

So let's get after it.

This is a bonus, second trade idea for today that came out of our internal conference call this morning and dovetails nicely with this note that JC just published.

We're getting short Lululemon, $LULU due to what appears to be a failed breakout:

It doesn't happen very often that a bearish setup presents an opportunity for us to position with a simple long puts purchase. Usually, when we want to buy puts, the whole world is on to the idea and the premiums in the options market reflect that.

But today, we've got a situation where a stock is flirting with breaking a key support level, and the options market is pricing in a smaller move than our research suggests is possible.

We got stopped out of a Wells Fargo trade a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like that was the whipsaw it needed to shake weak hands out. And since I was shaken out, I consider myself among the weak hands squad. I'm ok with that.

But given what we've seen since we were stopped out, we're getting back in for another try. This time, with tighter risk management and a longer runway.

Today's trade is in a $79B company that provides software, hardware, services, and reusable integrated circuit design blocks.

Here is a chart of Cadence Design Systems $CDNS:

Today is Day Two for the All Star Charts team hosting our Portfolio Accelerator event in New York City.

During our group conversations today, Strazza and I put our heads together and put on this trade in Snowflake $SNOW.

Hey folks...

The entire All Star Charts team is presently in NYC hosting our Portfolio Accelerator event. So I will skip the preamble and get right to the point for today's trade in $TSM...

The housing sector continues to perform well, and it makes sense that companies in the mortgage business should come along for the ride.

One of those names had a big push into the end of the year, and then had a monster pull back to start 2024. We think this reversal may be a bit overdone and the stock is now at a level where we can take an advantageous position with minimal downside from here.

Look what we have here: a $VIX popping its head up to two-month highs.

Are investors getting a little spooked by the prospect of a tricky earnings season?

We'll be able to figure all that out after the fact. In the meantime, we will use these elevated options premiums to help us ride out some portfolio profitability.

I asked my analysts to find me a big cap name that is trading sloppy.

And the one they came with is a widely followed mega-cap name that has been flopping around in a sideways choppy range which, coupled with upcoming earnings, is helping to juice options premiums.

Here's everyone's favorite EV car maker Tesla $TSLA:

Don't let today's headline scare you. I'm still bullish overall.

But with the S&P500 still bumping its head against overhead resistance, it wouldn't hurt to provide a little ballast for a mostly long portfolio here.

So with this in mind, I'm putting on a bearish trade in a stock that has not been participating in this bull market, and will likely continue to push lower as long as the broader indexes keep struggling here.