There are some big cap software stocks on the verge of resolving out of beautiful bases to the upside. Of course, we have to be on the ball to avoid earnings landmines as it's that time of the year.
That said, my favorite chart among these big caps that still has breathing room in it (about six weeks) before we have to deal with their next earnings report is Salesforce $CRM.
Did you know Motorola has been around since long before the cellular phone?
In the late 90's and early 2000's, Motorola was one of the go-to cell phone manufacturers. I owned several, personally. To this day, I still maintain that I've never had a clearer signal with zero audio delay than I did with my Motorola StarTac phone circa 2001.
This all came up this morning when internally, while discussing the setup in the $MSI stock, we were all kind of surprised that Motorola, based in Chicago, is a one-hundred year old company! Wow.
Clearly, this is a company that has gone through many pivots to lead new technology development.
Of more immediate concern to us options traders is we've got two potential catalysts that can drive some quick gains for us.
Fair warning: today's trade is in a company that will be reporting earnings early next week. I generally try to avoid entering trades ahead of earnings. But its that time of the season where its kinda hard to avoid earnings. They are happening. We just have to deal with it.
That said, we'll control what we can control: The amount of risk we take, and our time duration for the position to recover, if needed.
I recently came across a video on youtube from a very smart man – whom I respect and have had several favorable interactions with – that made me shake my head.
But before I throw any shade on any other professional colleague, let me be the first to say that I’m no genius. My shit stinks too, and I’m sure I’m equally guilty of throwing questionable ideas or thoughts out into the metaverse from time to time. I’m human, just like everyone else.
So here’s what got me rankled.
The video had a catchy title like: “How I made fourteen hundred dollars in one day trading 0-DTE options.”
Ok. I’m interested. I like to make that kinda money each trading day. Tell me more!
The short video went on to demonstrate how this trader sold a slightly out-of-the-money naked put in $SPX options expiring that same day – a day in which SPX rallied from start to finish making the put expire worthless. This allowed the trader to keep the $1400 he collected from selling that one put contract short near the open of trading that day. That’s pure profit, baby!
Cool. Great trade!
But here’s the thing. Actually, here are several things…
We kicked around a few ideas in this morning's Analyst meeting and the one thing that stood out to me is that I do not currently have any long exposure to the healthcare sector --- one of the strongest sectors out there.
That changes today.
We're going to get long a familiar name in the space, but we're going to do it carefully with a defined risk spread because we've got earnings coming up soon. So we'll go for a longer-duration trade and bet on earnings to be a catalyst for higher prices.
McDonald's just put "300-dolla-rolls" on the menu. Sweet and delicious. Limited time offer.
Many of you know that my all time favorite options trades are simple long calls on stocks making new all-time highs. And when you add in a big round number up ahead within spitting distance, it's hard for me not to get excited.
So we're going to put on a short-term play to catch those rolls in $MCD while they're hot!
We got into and quickly out of a trade in Microstrategy $MSTR over the past two weeks. Whipsaws suck. But the way the stock has quickly battled back is telling me we weren't wrong, just early. And I'm getting back in, but with a new stop loss level.
[9/7: updated stop to 48. We're already #FreeRiding here, so whatever we sell the remaining portion of the position for is pure profit!]
According to "the news," Americans can't afford to buy homes and rising mortgage costs will only deepen the problem.
Cool story, bro.
Do you know what disagrees? The price of virtually every publicly traded homebuilding company. We're already long Lennar and Toll Brothers which continue to work for us.
Next up is KB Homes $KBH, which appears to be on the verge of a big breakout following a welcome response to its recent earnings report.
If you’ve tuned in to either of my “Expiring Daily” Twitter spaces talks over the past two Mondays, you’ve heard me talking about a trading strategy I’m currently in the process of iterating that involves daily expiring options in the S&P 500 options complex ($SPY and $SPX options, specifically).
A thoughtful listener sent me an email with a bunch of questions about it, and I thought my answers to him might be enlightening to some of you who may be tinkering with strategy construction, particularly with short-dated, high-gamma options.
As I told the emailer, I can answer questions as of my thinking RIGHT NOW. But please know this is a work-in-process, and I’m continually tweaking my entry/exit/adjustment parameters as I learn more.
The thing about options is that participants in these markets are very good at pricing in expected moves. You'd be amazed at how often the options market nails the expected move in an instrument before it happens.
Like point spreads in sports betting, it's amazing how often they nail it.
But when options are mispriced, meaning traders are not expecting something -- that's where big wins can happen for those who position accordingly.
We think one such opportunity is presenting itself in the consumer staples corner of the world. And if we get right, we might have a 20-bagger on our hands.
Stocks and Futures traders like to talk about how they use stop-loss orders to define their risks, and that’s smart.
A lifetime ago I managed a small, independent hedge fund that traded commodities with a trend-following strategy. This strategy entered positions that I’d attempt to hold for weeks or months (if they were working).
Every position I had on had a resting stop-loss order working in the market, giving me comfort that I knew the most I could lose if I was wrong.
All that comfort I was enjoying changed one day after a trip to my clearing firm’s office in downtown Chicago.
I sat down with one of the firm’s risk managers for a simple “get-to-know-you” chat. He was curious about my trading and just wanted to get to know me a little better and see if there were any ways in which he could help me get to the next level.
We got into the weeds of my trading strategy and he was nodding along in agreement that he was in favor of what I was doing and he thought the returns I was earning were impressive and better than average for accounts of similar size with that firm.
