It feels like whatever items have been holding the broader markets back are falling by the wayside one by one, clearing the path to the next leg higher in this bull market.
And with volatility (as measured by $VIX) making new yearly lows, it's getting more affordable to make a bullish play with simple long call option trades.
My spidey senses are beginning to tingle with speculative fervor.
What we're seeing in the AI space as well as in the comeback in cryptocurrencies as of late has me thinking speculative players are soon to begin widening their net to capture alpha.
And some of these highly shorted equities with crypto exposure could be extremely ripe for short squeezes.
High on this list is Marathon Digital Holdings $MARA. It currently has in the neighborhood of 40% of its outstanding shares held in short positions. That is some major fuel for a short-covering rally if this stock starts ripping.
Here are a bunch of pictures illuminating why we think $MARA might be set up for a run higher. First up, the $MARA chart:
I'm continuing with my recent bent of positioning carefully in speculative names that have the potential to rip if the market resolves higher out of this Washington nonsense.
Today's trade is in a name that is showing signs of squeezing higher. It just needs a spark.
We all read them and they mess with our heads. It takes steadfast resolve to listen to the message of price action when everything else we read tries to trick us into doing the wrong thing.
The best way to keep ourselves level-headed when taking risks is to define that risk and trade small. There are few things more powerful than knowing with complete certainty the most I can lose, no matter what the market throws at me.
With this in mind, we're putting on a trade today in a stock that has the potential to be a real highflier if the markets stabilize and head higher following any Washington drama while limiting our risk in case we're early or wrong.
[9/7: stop moved to 260. We're already #FreeRiding on this one. So whatever we sell the remaining position for is pure profit!]
Today's trade leans against a significant support level that we believe will hold. But because the stock is at such a delicate level where it could quickly collapse on us if the level doesn't hold, we're going to keep the play simple and cleanly define our risks.
A picture is worth a thousand words, so here's the chart of Caterpillar $CAT that's got our attention:
I'm filing today's trade under the category of "Hard Trades." Not because it's particularly hard to execute or because it's a complicated multi-legged spread. It won't require an excessive amount of margin to get positioned nor is there any risk of unlimited losses.
It's hard because people might look at the trading action of the past few days and think that it's "gone too far" and "I should wait for a pullback."
And traders who think that way may be right.
But here's the thing: sometimes the best trades to get into are the best precisely because they are the "hardest" to pull the trigger on. And that's where our opportunity is. Those of us who fight through the conventional wisdom of average traders and get positioned ahead of the crowd will be lifted later on by those same traders who were "waiting for a pullback" and put an ever-rising bid underneath our stock that fuels our future gains.
We’re back to a key level of interest for Small-caps on an absolute basis. And we’re back down to historic levels relative to Large-caps. The chart tells a very powerful story.
I’m a buyer down here.
If the Russell2000 is above last Summer’s lows, I will be long the $IWM ETF. I also think there will be plenty of opportunities this summer in small-cap stocks.
We talked about $IWM internally this morning and I suggested a good, levered way to play this thesis while honoring a nearby risk management level that will get us out of the trade without much pain if we're wrong.
Full Disclosure: I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. As such, I'm excited about this upcoming NFL season. This is the year! Does this fact color my interest in today's trade? Maybe.
I get all my speculative juice in the financial markets. But there is a growing number of Americans who are jumping into online sports betting. The increases in both participation and dollars wagered is skyrocketing.
Today's trade is a bet on a continuation of this trend that will likely be driven by the next NFL season.
Options premiums have risen a little bit in recent days due to the fed, earnings, government data, and trader indecision, and [insert your favorite scary story].
Whatever the reason, this feels like a good time and opportunity to add some delta-neutral positions to my portfolio.