Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).
When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.
An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.
There's a trade perking up from the most recent Hall of Famers report that is ready for us to get involved. We're going to do it via a debit option spread with defined risk and a chart level that keeps risk manageable.
And when I do, I usually suffer the consequences – almost without exception.
But today is one of those exceptions. Thankfully.
Recently, in an effort to fade the rising volatility in the options market arising from the 3-4 week pullback from recent stock market highs, I sold naked puts in a large cap stock – Occidental Petroleum $OXY.
I like the name for a number of reasons, the most prominent being that Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) has been acquiring large blocks of stock just below current levels. This is support.
So when the broader markets were continuing their slide a couple of weeks ago, I felt $OXY was a high probability bet to hold these levels until the mini-market panic cooled off, and selling premium via $OXY puts seemed like an intelligent way to play it.
Stocks continue to be slippery with the S&P 500 down 6 out of the last 8 trading days.
I'm in the camp that this is a constructive pullback after a fantastic run to kick off 2023. JC has been pounding the table all month about how sloppy, digestive trading action in the month of February is perfectly normal market behaviour.
With February drawing to a close soon, I wouldn't be suprised to see this downdraft exhaust itself soon. As such, I'm going to make a tactical bet that a leading name in the banking/finance sector is going to hold these levels and potentially lead the way back to 2023 highs.
Slippery markets make for rising options premiums. And one sector ETF is currently rising head and shoulders above the rest, offering some juicy premiums for us to sell into along with a wide risk management band for us to dance in.
So let's take advantage of the rising fear in this sector for an opportunistic trade and potentially quick profits.
In the options market, summer flights priced in Boeing options are pretty cheap right now.
I think I'll be looking to take a flight to a fun European destination if I can get a bullish position in Boeing to pay for it. Maybe I'll even fly on a Boeing jet?
During our analyst meeting this morning, we kicked around a few bullish ideas, but it was this Boeing $BA chart that rose to the top:
We're going to get involved with a bullish options spread that gives us through the summer to most efficiently express this thesis.