This is the video recording of the May 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Dr. Copper is limping into the close – on pace for its worst week since last November.

The risk-off tone that began earlier in the week is intensifying. Crude oil is turning lower. Gold is pulling back. And the equity indexes are drowning in a sea of red.

But nothing stings stock market bulls quite as badly as the breakdown in copper futures…

Copper just undercut a key polarity zone marked by the August 2022 pivot highs.

Those pivot highs represented a critical level of resistance that became support earlier this year. Fast-forward to today, and former support has given way to the bears, highlighted by an oversold reading...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our May Monthly Strategy Session last Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s getting busy in the commodities space.

Live cattle posted a new all-time high last month. Precious metals are gearing up for a potential rip-roaring rally, as gold retested all-time highs yesterday. And sugar futures refuse to quit.

But when I review my commodity charts, I notice more topping formations underway than bottoming patterns.

Crude oil is front and center as the energy space – commodities and stocks – remains one of the weakest areas of the market. 

That’s why yesterday’s action in crude has my full attention…

Check out Thursday’s candle in crude oil futures:

Did someone punch in too many zeros? 

I have no idea what caused yesterday’s abrupt sell-off, but...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The increased selling pressure across grain markets might not be on your radar. 

But pay close attention: The soybean complex, corn, and wheat are edging toward their respective year-to-date lows as demand wanes. 

Even if you don’t trade these ag contracts, fresh multi-month lows – especially in wheat – carry broad implications for equities and cyclical assets. (Hint: It has to do with crude oil.) 

That’s why I’m on high alert for a potential breakdown in Chicago wheat…

Wheat has been in a strong downtrend since its March 2022 peak, entering a bearish momentum regime last summer.

Notice it's currently carving out a potential multi-month reversal pattern below a significant polarity zone.

But the bulls have their work cut out for them, as the bearish momentum profile suggests sellers are still in control of the market. 

When I take a closer look, I see a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our March Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each

Let’s get right into it!

This is the video recording of the April 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

There’s no doubt about it: Fundamentals drive markets over longer time frames.

It’s a common misconception that technical analysts don’t believe in fundamental analysis. 

That’s not true.

Many of us simply chose to follow price for a multitude of reasons. Price always made sense to me, especially since it pays at the end of the day.

Whether you use fundamentals or technicals to inform your investment decisions comes down to philosophy. 

Remember, we’re all solving the same puzzle – just from different perspectives…

Check out the dual-pane chart below of the CRB Index and the overall CPI percentage change from a year earlier:

I was shocked at how closely these charts move in tandem. They look almost identical! It makes sense considering inflationary assets such as commodities rise along with inflation.

You can choose to focus on the CPI report or...

For many years, we had to hear those miserable gold bugs telling us how inflation was coming and Gold would be our savior.

Well, inflation came in harder than at any point in over 40 years and Gold prices fell.

So the same people who owned the only asset not making any money for an entire decade, got it wrong again.

I can't believe it.

So here we are, Gold prices are pressing up against all-time highs again, now that inflation expectations have been falling off a cliff.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals and crude oil stole the show this week.

Crude oil reclaimed its prior-cycle peak, gapping higher on the Sunday open, while gold and silver posted fresh highs. 

I’ll have more on those shiny metals Monday in the weekly Gold Rush report.

Today, I want to bring your attention to a commodity that often escapes the headlines – palladium – and why I think a significant bottom could be in place for this diverse metal.

I say “diverse” because palladium has multiple use-cases, from catalytic converters to fine jewelry.

Around ASC we jokingly refer to palladium as “the Notre Dame of precious metals” because it’s in its own conference. 

Categorizations aside, here are three reasons I believe palladium is a strong buy…

• Commercial Positioning

Commercial hedges hold their largest net-long position in history!

...

This is the video recording of our April 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Buying opportunities abound across commodities.

It’s easy to miss this phenomenon if you’re solely focused on the major indexes, as the CRB Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index $BCOM broke down earlier this month. 

Don’t let those charts mislead you. Plenty of sweet setups present themselves.

And the next chart is by far my favorite…

Cocoa!

Check out the five-year base in cocoa futures:

Cocoa is taking the shape of a potential ascending triangle. This pattern carries a bullish bias as buyers step in, creating a series of higher lows. 

Momentum is another bullish data point on the chart. Notice the 14-week RSI has held within a bullish regime since the initial thrust higher in early 2018. 

Cocoa futures provide a textbook...