Crude oil is breaking to multi-month highs. Copper is approaching the 4-dollar level. And Silver is ripping!
I’ll have more on the precious metals front Monday with your weekly Gold Rush.
Today, I’m focusing on the grain and livestock markets. The dropping dollar has helped line up a long list of fresh trade ideas: potential failed breakouts, possible failed breakdowns, and critical levels to trade against…
We held our July Monthly Strategy Session on Wednesday night. ASC Premium Members can click here to review the recording and the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
The most important crop report of the year has hit.
Yes, it’s generated quite the buzz over the past few weeks, as grain markets ripped higher in anticipation.
Some observers even speculated that Friday’s report was the most important in the history of the agrarian economy.
So let’s round down, be conservative, and call it the most important crop report in 5,000 years.
Seriously, though, it was a big deal, as acreage estimates for soybeans represent the largest miss since the report's inception – or, like, ever, in history.
More importantly for traders and investors, the report brought increased volatility.
If you’re like me and prefer to sit out these kinds of days, you’re patiently waiting for the dust to settle.
Meanwhile, if you’re at all put off by the volatility of these futures contracts, I have a vehicle that promises a much smoother ride…
Let’s talk about Archer Daniels Midland $ADM, “supermarket to the world.”
The $41B commodity behemoth has more than 100 years of experience in the grain markets.
A healthy rotation is underway across equity markets.
Leadership has swung toward cyclical value-oriented names over the trailing two weeks. Small-cap Energy, Materials, and Financials are outpacing the year-to-date top performers (Large-cap Tech). It’s a clear expansion in participation and a hallmark characteristic of any bull market.
But if cyclical stocks have a chance at participating over the long haul, we want to witness similar strength from corresponding commodity markets.
And we are…
Check out rebar futures posting a potential failed breakdown:
Our Equal-Weight 33 Commodity Index is printing fresh two-year lows. Crude oil is hanging around the lower bounds of a multi-month consolidation. And Dr. Copper is loitering below former support.
This isn’t bull market behavior.
But just as the stock market is a market of stocks, the commodity market is a market of, well, a diverse set of commodities.
So, while I don’t want to buy many high-profile procyclical contracts – and certainly not the commodity indexes – I do like the more obscure areas showing strength…
Areas such as uranium!
I outlined my case for uranium stocks at the start of the year. It was pretty simple: If gold and copper are printing fresh highs, peripheral areas likely enjoy a bid. That includes uranium.
Former resistance turns into potential support – and vice versa.
That’s Polarity 101. It’s a pattern found throughout the market. It doesn’t matter the asset class – Bitcoin or Berkshire. It’s simply human psychology at work.
These levels often mark missed opportunities. And, in the process, they create price memory that fuels increased activity. Traders and investors are driven to transact at these levels, highlighting supply and demand zones that act as support or resistance.
Why does this matter right now?
Because gold futures have sliced through near-term support, careening toward a level etched in the minds of goldbugs everywhere…
I’m talking about the 2011 highs!
Gold futures recently undercut a key level marked by the February pivot highs and last month’s pivot lows – a polarity zone.
Buyers were hammering a key retracement level from below. The way I learned it, "The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks."
Three months later…
The July contract is knocking on the door – again!
How polite.
Check out July cotton nearing the January 2022 closing high of 88.34:
