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Alfonso’s Daily Note

February’s Weak Spot

February 21, 2025

We’re halfway through Q1, and February is historically a weak month for stocks.

But here’s the key—seasonal weakness doesn’t usually kick in until the second half of the month. And that’s exactly where we are now.

In other words, if stocks struggle these next few weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise based on historical standards. 

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Prescription for Small Caps?

February 19, 2025

Health Care is one of the largest sectors in the Russell 2000, making up 17%—just behind Financials at 19% and Industrials at 17.5%. 

That makes it a key player in the small-cap space, often overlooked but packed with information.

I often use this sector to gauge where small boys are headed next.

After a brutal drawdown in 2022-2023, the Small-Cap Health Care ETF $PSCH is finally knocking on the door of a major trend reversal.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

I’m Bullish Europe

February 18, 2025

I'm in the UK visiting my sister for a couple weeks, and I have to tell you—I love it here.

The vibes, the peace, and the sense of adventure just hit different. It never gets old to visit Europe. There are so many incredible places, rich with history and culture, all packed close together.

But for me, it's hard not to think about how these European indexes are moving lately.

They’re all ripping. 

From the all-time highs in Germany and the UK to big structural trend reversals in Italy, Spain, and Greece, investors are embracing risk, and it's showing up across the board.

Unlike in the U.S., where tech dominates, these European indexes are built differently. They have a ton of financials, industrials, and even utilities. That’s just how it works here.