This is the video recording of the September 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bears and tech bros are whining in the corner as energy outperforms.

Haters can hate all they want…

Energy marks the spot when it comes to stocks.

Spencer and I discussed it on Wednesday’s “What the FICC?” episode, highlighting the absolute and relative uptrends across the space.

Energy is clearly resuming a leadership role in stock and commodity markets. But crude oil isn’t the only commodity exhibiting strength.

Cattle are ripping higher, too!

Check out the daily chart of live cattle futures:

Live cattle are breaking out of a multi-month consolidation, printing new all-time highs.

Energy stocks and commodities remain front and center.

Our equity plays are running toward our upside objectives. Natural gas is attracting a bid. And bulls are eyeing $100 crude.

With that as our backdrop, we reviewed the energy space on yesterday’s "What the FICC?" episode.

And it appears the next leg higher for crude and its crew has commenced…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I recently outlined five reasons to bet on energy.

While I stand by my line of reasoning, I did manage to leave out one overarching theme. And it’s an important one!

It’s a market theme that’s played out for almost three years, extending beyond energy to encompass commodities as an asset class.

I’m talking about the commodity-bond ratio…

Commodities relative to bonds was the most impactful high-level chart headed into 2021.

A major trend reversal favoring raw materials over US treasuries signaled a new, wild world on the horizon – a world characterized by inflation and rising interest rates. 

This shift in relative strength caught many investors off guard as commodities also outpaced stocks for the first time in over a decade.

Shockingly, commodities were back in the conversation as analysts struggled to deem the energy space a viable investment. (As if the price charts didn’t provide ample evidence.) 

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

How was your summer?

Ready to make some money this Fall?

Last night was our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of Allstarcharts.

This is where we go over everything happening in the current markets.

The chart of the S&P500 is a great representation of the circumstances right now.

Stocks are correcting and stuck in a range during a perfectly normal time to be digesting their historic gains.

This is the video recording of our September 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Seasonality is not the most heavily-weighted data point in my analysis.

It doesn’t even make the top three: price, price, and price.

Nevertheless, tracking seasonal patterns has proven quite valuable in past experiences, especially regarding commodities. (We discussed it today on What the FICC, outlining three strong seasonal tailwinds heading into the fall. Check it out below.)

Raw materials are clearly affected by the earth’s rotation around the sun. 

And while these trends fail to produce explicit entry or exit signals, they do provide insight into potential market conditions (not unlike sentiment or COT positioning). 

I use seasonality to help guide my focus to those areas of the market that deserve additional attention. Areas such as…

Sugar!

I’ve been watching sugar futures since the beginning of the year, waiting for a breakout. 

And boy, did it deliver!

Oil prices just went out at their highest monthly close since last October. That was almost a year ago.

The trend for Crude Oil has turned up.

Here's all that former resistance from 2018 turning into support more recently:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley 

“Looks like cocoa and sugar are poised to break out.” 

That’s the first message I saw on my phone this morning as traders across the US were preparing for the upcoming session.

But I wasn’t ready to get behind a tactical move in either cocoa or sugar.

Instead, my full attention rests with one commodity on the precipice of an explosive rally…

Cotton.

Check out the weekly continuation chart of cotton futures:

My eyes have been fixated on cotton since early February.

This is the video recording of the August 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley 

We like buying energy.

Who doesn’t? 

Energy stocks are resolving higher and holding their breakouts, something few market areas can claim this quarter.

It makes sense.

Interest rates are rising across the curve as the US 10- and 30-year yields eclipse last year’s high.

Procyclical commodities and value-oriented stocks are responding as they tend to benefit the most as yields climb.

And when we add a dash of stock market rotation – bam! 

Energy-related assets are making contact!

But while rates continue to rise and energy names are ripping, crude oil has not been able to break out…

Check out the daily chart of crude oil futures sliding back within its prior range: