It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

I have to imagine Uranium stocks catch a bid if copper and gold are ripping higher.

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodity prices remain elevated despite easing inflationary pressures.

It’s evident in the two overarching themes across the commodity space – resilience at the index level and relative strength from metals.

I’ve been vocal about both, urging readers not to fight DR. Copper while teasing the possibility of Gold reaching 5K. I’m serious about both!

Strength likely spills over into the periphery if we’re in an environment where gold and copper print fresh highs. 

That brings us to my favorite chart this week…

Check out the Uranium ETF $URA:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Every day we have the choice to either follow the news or follow trends. I choose the latter...

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Inflation has peaked!

Or so I’ve been told… 

Rates are rolling over, undercutting their June highs from last year. High-yield debt, including emerging-market bonds, is catching a bid.

And major commodity indexes are on the verge of breaking down.

That all sounds logical to me.

But just because inflation might begin to ease doesn’t mean I’m taking a bearish stance on inflationary assets, especially commodities.

As crazy as that may seem,  these next four charts support my case…

Check out the long-term chart of gold futures overlaid with copper:

These metals are in the process of carving out decade-long bases.

This is the video recording of the January 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

It's the weekly Gold Rush!

As gold futures approach a significant area of overhead supply, we cover the most important charts in the space.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The NYSE might be closed today, but futures markets are open.

And while the volume remains low during US trading hours, it hasn’t stopped Gold futures from revisiting a critical level.

Gold currently challenges a price level engrained in goldbugs’ minds worldwide…

The prior commodity supercycle peak!

Check out the chart of Gold futures:

Yesterday we talked about how early the Phlx Gold & Silver Index was in this cycle.

This index of 30 precious metal mining companies was the first of the Gold related stock indexes to break out. This was about a month after Gold Futures confirmed a buy signal for us in early October.

But of the "stock" related indexes, we look to the Phlx Gold & Silver Index as a leader. It certainly acts like one.

And do you know how I know it's not a downtrend?

Look at its components. Each column represents a different moving average ranging from the 5-day all the way to the 250-day. The further to the right the column sits, the longer the smoothing mechanism we used.

Green cells represent when the price of the stocks are above that particular moving average, and each of the 30 stocks are listed on the left side of the table:

In the 4th quarter we saw the Phlx Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) break out above its key level, invalidating any bearish thesis that one could possibly have for Precious Metals.

You see all that resistance in the $XAU in 2013 and 2016, right around $110-113?

Well once we got back above that in November, it was time to start buying Gold & Silver stocks.

But where was the most popular ETF $GDX?

It was still below that overhead supply, as you can see in this chart below.

Until now...

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs, especially when they're bellwethers!

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On Tuesday of this week I was in the city for a few meetings, so I dropped by Fox Business to chat with my old pal Liz Claman.

Her and I have been doing this dance together for over a decade.

She's one of the best in the business and we always have a great time.

Liz knows me well by now so there's no gossiping about the Fed with me.

It was all about explaining how we're already entering Month #8 of this ongoing Bull Market for stocks.