In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He’s been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.
We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the “Buffett Support Zone.”
But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade — which, to me, makes it vulnerable.
If Buffet’s buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he’s got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty cheap, meaning we’ll get paid even less to take the trade on, which further increases our risk.
I don’t like that trade.
But I do like THIS one: [Read more…]